Re:Doug's question

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

gburgess@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:

>Doug noted that J. Devine's account relied on a notion of productivity and
>profit-led recovery. Is there anyone who can comment on the record of
>productivity gains (especially macro-level) in the US and other leading
>countries in the recent period? For example, has anyone brought up to date
>the kind of long-term series Dumeniel and Levy (sp?) produced for the US?
>
>It seems to me that unless this is really a different kind of capitalism,
>any notion we are heading into a *long* upswing has to demonstrate
>there have been significant gains in (broadly applicable) productivity,
>(combined with the 'extra-market' means to prevent workers from shifting those
>gains from profits to wages). I hear lots about computers and robots and
>biotechnolgy, but are they really translating into broadly-based capital
>investment and productivity growth? My understanding is that even the US data
>doesn't really show this. Or does it?


No there has been no productivity boom. I'm in a bit of a hurry now; I'll
provide some numbers tomorrow. Overall productivity in the U.S. in the
1990s is about the same as the 1980s. There's been a burst for the last 2
quarters, but over the whole decade, or even the whole post-91 expansion,
the record is pretty mediocre. There has been a pickup in manufacturing
productivity, but this seems to be more the result of contracting out
services and shutting inefficient plants than of improvements to the
production process overall.

Gross investment is up, yes, but an awful lot of it is concentrated in
quickly depreciating computers, and a lot of that is going into security
trading rooms.

Doug