FW: BLS Daily Report boundary="---- =_NextPart_000_01BCD56E.B47D7150"

[Richardson_D <Richardson_D@xxxxxxx>]

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BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, OCTOBER  9, 1997

RELEASED TODAY:  In July, there were 1,506 mass layoff actions by
employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits
during the month ....The number of workers involved totaled 185,876
persons.  Both the number of layoff events and claimants for
unemployment insurance were about the same as in July 1996 ....

__Fed Chairman Greenspan dubs the current rate of economic growth
"unsustainable," warning  that, if the robust pace continues, it could
trigger inflation severe enough to undermine the expansion.  The Fed
chief, in testimony prepared for the House Budget Committee, added that
it would be "unrealistic" to expect the type of soaring stock market
gains recorded over the past few years.  "The performance of labor
markets this year suggests that the economy has been on an unsustainable
track," Greenspan said.  "That the marked rate of absorption of
potential workers since 1994 has not induced a more dramatic increase in
employee compensation per hour and price inflation has come as a major
surprise to most analysts," he added ....Firms now seem to be scraping
the bottom of the barrel for skilled workers, with the pool of available
potential employees - people who say they want to work but are not
actively involved in a job search - dropping to its lowest level since
1970.  BLS data put that number at 4.7 million in September ....(Daily
Labor Report, page A-11).
__Greenspan's warning on the economy and stocks again roils the markets
.....He also voiced skepticism about the notion ... that recent advances
in computer and telecommunications technology, coupled with increased
competition from foreign trade and more flexible labor markets, have
ushered in a "new era" for the U.S. economy in which there is less need
to fear inflation.  Greenspan described renewed inflation as "without
question, the greatest threat" to sustaining the surprising vigor of the
current expansion, now in its seventh year ....(Washington Post, page
A1).
__Greenspan warned that inflation might be on the horizon, jolting
investors who had grown used to the ideal economic conditions of the
last year and increasing the chances that the central bank might soon
raise interest rates ....(New York Times, page A1).
__Six years of inflation-free growth are finally taking their toll on
some American businesses.  Wages, at last, are rising in many  markets.
But prices, by and large, aren't.  And that applies a vise to profits.
If the clamp tightens over the next year, the much-vaunted "new"
American economy will face its toughest test yet ....Greenspan shook
that confidence ....There simply aren't enough idle workers to keep the
economy - and profits - growing as rapidly as they have been unless
productivity growth, currently running at about 1 percent a year by
official measures, doubles ....Greenspan says job growth hasn't slowed
enough ....(Wall Street Journal, pages A1, A2).

"Probing the Depths of the Labor Pool for a Clue on Inflation" is the
title of the Washington Post's "Trendlines" ....John M. Berry writes
that the issue is not how many people are unemployed, but rather the
extent to which the millions of people who don't have a job but aren't
looking for one can be enticed to work ....The demand for labor in the
U.S. has grown very rapidly in recent years and drawn more people into
the labor force, particularly more women.  The labor force participation
rate, the share of the working-age population that either has a job or
is looking for one, reached a record 67.3 percent last spring.  The
extra workers have kept the unemployment rate from falling even more
than it has and helped hold down inflation ....Philip Rones, a labor
market expert at BLS, said the pool of potential workers still could be
very large.  "It's not just discouraged workers ... or those we call
marginally attached ....As conditions change, people respond by coming
into the labor force and by leaving the labor force ....You could make a
case that there are millions and millions of people who under some
circumstances would work ....People come out of the woodwork, and it's
not just hundreds of thousands, but millions" ....

The Commerce Department's two major statistical agencies face delays in
key business surveys and other data upkeep programs that could
eventually affect the accuracy of national economic reports, Commerce
officials say.  Because Commerce, like most other federal departments,
is funded under a short-term continuing resolution rather than a fiscal
1998 appropriations bill, the data programs in question are funded at
last year's levels.  Officials said this situation is already causing
them to postpone the mailing of business surveys and delaying other data
improvement projects ....For its part, BLS appears likely to get close
to the spending level proposed by the administration.  The restrictions
of the continuing resolution do not pose a serious problem, said
Katharine Newman, the agency's financial manager ....(Daily Labor
Report, page A-16).

Consumer pressure drives 1998 car prices lower.  Intense competition
among automakers has sparked rebates, cheap financing, and low-cost
monthly lease deals earlier in the traditional new model season.  By
cutting manufacturing costs, automakers are bringing models to market
priced lower than the models they replace, or they are offering
incentives on the new models ....(USA Today, page 1B).

Heating fuel prices should be lower during this winter than they were
last year, the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration
said.  The EIA expects heating oil prices to be no more than about 10
cents a gallon below last year's peak.  The agency also predicted that
peak prices for natural gas this winter will be about 20 percent lower
than last year's peak (Washington Post, page E2)

Costly and frustrating transportation delays that started this summer
continue to torment businesses throughout the West.  The culprit is huge
operational problems created by last year's merger of Union Pacific and
Southern Pacific Rail.  Those problems still aren't fixed, and robust
demand for goods hasn't subsided.  Meanwhile, a nationwide shortage of
truck drivers is worsening.  The result:  A transportation nightmare
that began in the West is rippling across the USA, pushing shipping
costs higher.  And that could mean higher prices for consumers ....(USA
Today, page 1B).

Business executives and economists fear that employee health care costs
are poised to rocket, after almost three years of increases of less than
1 percent ....An accompanying chart shows that health insurance costs
have stabilized since the early 1990s, with the percent change in
private employer costs per hour worked, 1987 to the present.  Data is
attributed to BLS unpublished estimates calculated in current dollars.

DUE OUT TOMORROW:  Producer Price Indexes - September 1997


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