[PEN-L:11974] Re: Swing

[Wojtek Sokolowski <sokol@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

At 09:09 AM 8/25/97 -0700, Michael Perelman wrote:
>A question, such as the percentage favoring socialism, will be highly
>sensitive to the phrasing -- probably moreso at the time.


Certainly, but the issue goes far beyond mere wording.  It touches the
problem of social value of the opinion or behaviour being measured by the
survey. Some call it the "motherhood" or "sin" effect -- virtually everyone
supports the former while opposing the latter -- so the answers to the
"motherhood" or sin" questionnaire items are rather useless since there is
little variability on them.

In more general terms, surveys are rather useless, if not misleading, in
testing opinions on value-charged items, since people would give what they
consider the "politically correct" answer, rather than what they actually
think.  In case of opinions, the validity (=consistency with the phenomenon
intended to be measured) of such survey items are hard, if at all possible,
to verify, but such verification can be made in items measuring observable
behaviour.

For example, studies (cites available) comparing church attendance reported
in survey to that actually observed in temples and churches  reveal that the
actual attendance is only about 50% (sic!) of that reported in surveys
(different denominations vary in the degree of their overreporting).  I
suspect that similar overreporting affects the survey responses to most
value charged items.  I suspect that had a survey been taken after the Nixon
resignation asking respondents how they voted in 1972, Nixon would have
"received" 50% (if not less) "votes" in that survey of what he actually
received in 1972.

In sum, most surveys are in the modern age what the oracles were in the
ancient times -- they are perceived as a vox dei (or vox populi which is one
and the same thing), yet they mean whatever those who answer or interpret
them want them to mean, that is, they have no empirical meaning at all.

cheers,

wojtek sokolowski
institute for policy studies
johns hopkins university
baltimore, md 21218
sokol@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
voice: (410) 516-4056
fax:   (410) 516-8233

POLITICS IS THE SHADOW CAST ON SOCIETY BY BIG BUSINESS. AND AS LONG AS THIS
IS SO, THE ATTENUATI0N OF THE SHADOW WILL NOT CHANGE THE SUBSTANCE.
- John Dewey