[PEN-L:11153] The Conde Report On U.S.-Mexico Relations

[Michael Eisenscher <meisenscher@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

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     THE CONDE REPORT ON U.S.-MEXICO RELATIONS

     Volume 1, Issue 24, Monday, July 7, 1997

                              "AND THE WALLS FELL"

     NEWS ITEMS OF SIGNIFICANCE IN U.S.-MEXICO RELATIONS
     ____________________________________________
     EDITOR: Francisco J. Conde, CONDE CONSULTING GROUP, INC., An
International Business,                   Marketing & Communications
Consultancy, 14500 Dallas Pkwy, Ste. 402, Dallas, Texas 75240-8315,
     TELEPHONE: (972) 392-1361, FAX: (972) 392-2683, INTERNET E-MAIL
ADDRESS:                                  FCONDE@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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     INDEX:

     1.) EDITORIAL ON THE BEAUTIFUL 'FIESTA OF DEMOCRACY' AND THE
FUTURE OF MEXICO
CLOSER
     3.) PRIVATE OWNERS OF N. LAREDO-MEXICO CITY RAIL LINE CUT STAFF BY
50 PERCENT


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     By The Conde Report

     ON THE BEAUTIFUL 'FIESTA OF DEMOCRACY' AND THE FUTURE OF MEXICO

     EDITORIAL --(TCR)--Today we shall have a relatively clear picture
of the direction in which the 53 million eligible Mexican voters choose
to take the country in an accounting of the results of the July 6, 1997
elections for the Congress, Senate, Mayor of Mexico City and several
key governships.

     But it might behoove us to reflect "On The Beautiful Fiesta of
Democracy" in the felicitous phrase used by President Ernesto Zedillo
to encourage Mexico's voters to use their power of the ballot to make
known their wishes to their national, state and local leaders. The
Beautiful Fiesta is something to behold, the peaceful alternation of
power in the national legislative chambers and in the presidency. In
the United States and in Europe we have watched as the people have
brought about startling changes.

     In the U.S., we have witnessed the Republican Revolution of
November 1994, which eliminated Democratic majorities in both the U.S.
House and Senate for the first time in 40 years. Failing to heed sober
counsel and misunderstanding the obligations imposed by the requirement
of governing due to too many years in the wilderness, House Speaker
Newt Gingrich, former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole and House
Majority Leader Dick Armey squandered a golden moment. Their serious
underestimation of the spine, intelligence and tactical and strategical
strengths of minority party President Bill Clinton gave him the chance
to recover. Since then Clinton has grown enormously, while Dole fell as
a poor presidential candidate in November 1996 and Gingrich's vehemence
led to overwhelming unpopularity and the smallest majority in Congress
in November 1996 elections in decades, weakening the unity and strength
of the Republican Party. What appeared a Revolution with a capital R
turned out to be more of a strong wind storm that has faded.

     The example above is to underscore that, In effect, we are
watching in Mexico a non-presidential year election in Mexico, a
so-called mid-year election, in which Mexicans are offered an
opportunity to redress and to correct the direction of the nation. All
of the polls indicate that the people are intent on eliminating the
68-year majority of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in the
Mexican lower house of Congress, or Chamber of Deputies, akin to the
U.S. House of Representatives, while the upper house, a more
deliberative, thoughtful body, is expected to remain under the control
of the long-ruling PRI.

     If the many polls are sustained as accurate by the election
results, the Mexican lower house with the constitutionally endowed
"power of the purse" can be expected to reduce the austerity of
government spending in recent years and begin to take efforts to
assuage the tremendous negative loss of wages and buying power of the
overwhelming majority of the Mexican population. That, rather than, a
negative, is likely to spur greater consumer spending over time, thus
providing a stronger underpinning to an economic recovery that
seemingly is doing quite well without it.

     That lower house victory is likely be the most important
development arising from this election. The loud noises over a victory
by Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) leader and ex-PRI Governor
Cuauhtémoc Cardenas over all comers for Mexico City Mayor, while
significant and notable, is likely to have more symbolic than real
impact. His victory in the first-time capital mayoral election since
1928 will prove to be a difficult assisgnment, given that the D.F.
government is weak and $2 billion U.S. in debt. His will be the
challenge to provide effective, effecient government for the citys' 18
million residents, rather than to challenge the nation's President from
his seat. If he fails to understand that, his popularity in the capital
will sooner drop than rise.

     But above all, to be observed on this day of election results is
the overall condition of the nation. In the past week, two major
international brokerages have increased their estimated Mexican
economic growth for 1997 to 4.7 from near 4 percent earlier this year.
The Mexican Stock Market main IPC index, a harbinger of things to come
over the next six months, has broken four straight record highs,
shattering through 4,600 and 4,500 on the index. Consumer spending is
on the rise, sound foreign investments are on the rise, job creation is
becoming more apparent and the country just announced a successful
11-year refinancing of a large part of its external debt. Exports are
way up and imports are growing too, a good sign. TCR

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     By The Conde Report

     PRESIDENT ZEDILLO CASTS VOTE AT SCHOOL NEAR PALACE, ON CRUTCHES
FROM KNEE TURN

     MEXICO CITY --(TCR) Unperturbed by thoughts of potential
election-day violence, President Ernesto Zedillo Sunday cast his ballot
early in a school near the presidential palace. Hobbling on crutches
after a minor knee operation, he told reporters: "I think voting is
plentiful and I believe enthusiastic. ... Democracy speaks for itself.
It has its own language, which is very beautiful." The remarks were
carried on the President's Internet Web Site.

     Zedillo's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), in power since
1929, could lose the lower house of
Congress and up to three of six state governor races, according to the
last surveys before a
pre-election ban on pollilng that began June 28.

     The polls also indicated former PRI governor, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas,
on the verge of
victory as the first elected mayor of Mexico City's Federal District --
the heart of this giant
metropolis of 18 million. Cardenas is carrying the banner of the
leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution
(PRD), which he co-founded after quitting the PRI in 1987.
     On Sunday, people formed lines to vote at the 104,700 polling
stations across Mexico, many of which opened slightly late. Preliminary
official results were expected a few hours after polls close at 6 p.m.
or 7
p.m. (2400 Greenwich Mean Time).

     Strict enforcement of a government ban on any reference to poll
results -- even old polls -- led
Mexico's Radio and Television Industry Chamber to black out all foreign
cable and satellite reports
about the elections beamed into the country. Cable News Network (CNN),
CBS, NBC and the
British Broadcasting Corp. were among those affected.

     The sale of alcoholic drinks was banned from midnight on Friday.
Dozens of thousands of police
officers were on duty to guarantee security for the election, which
officials termed the cleanest yet in a
country which has suffered decades of polling fraud.

     Voters were wary of major electoral changes. Newspapers reported
Sunday that the elections were a big test for the new system. "On
trial, the new electoral framework," read the headline in the El
Universal daily and on its web site.

     President Zedillo's changes have included holding elections for
mayor of Mexico City's Federal District -- a post previously filled by
a presidential nominee -- and providing generous public funding for all
political
parties, including the opposition.

     The Federal District is home to 8.5 million people, about half the
number who live in the sprawling
Mexico City metropolitan area and is the federal capital. The rest of
city's residents live in Mexico
State, which has a separate state government.

     The loss of a PRI majority in the lower house may result in big
changes since Congress has traditionally acted as a formal supporter of
the government program of  PRI presidents.

     Opposition leaders expressed confidence the could end the PRI's
Congress majority and force Zedillo into real negotiations over many
laws and the budget, something unprecedented in Mexico's modern history.

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     By The Conde Report

     PRESIDENT ZEDILLO ENCOURAGES MEXICANS TO PARTAKE OF 'GREAT
DEMOCRATIC FIESTA'

     MEXICO CITY --(TCR)-  President Ernesto Zedillo Friday urged
Mexicans to take part in a ``great democratic fiesta,'' encouraging his
countrymen to make use of electoral reforms have ensured free and fair
national elections on Sunday.

     The voting for the Congress and Senate, six state governors and
Mexico City's mayoralty is as significant as that which lifted Zedillo
to his post in August 1994. Polls indicated that his PRI ruling party
could lose House, a first in 68 years.

     "From the day I assumed the presidency of the republic, I called
for political reform so that all Mexicans can live in full democracy,''
Zedillo said in a speech broadcast nationwide Friday night. "Thanks to
these reforms and the deep democratic conviction of the Mexican people,
we have witnessed an electoral campaign without precedent in our
history,'' Zedillo said.

     But while Zedillo claims he has created a "healthy distance''
between himself and his party, he launched a nationwide tour to
announce public works projects in the weeks leading up to the election,
in what has been perceived as an attempt to bolster his party's chances
in the vote.

     Zedillo's last major speech before Sunday's elections appeared to
be an attempt to claim the mantle of a chief executive who vigorously
pushed 1 1/2 years of negotiations with all parties, winning
constitutional changes that consolidated democracy at home.

     Although the parties failed to reach accord on some issues of
campaign financing and party activities, Zedillo's government has said
the reforms begun under his predecessor show his own full commitment to
democracy.

     For the first time, the Federal Electoral Institute -- Mexico's
supreme election body -- is fully independent of the government, which
has been dominated for decades by Zedillo's Institutional Revolutionary
Party. Previously, the elections body was under control of the partisan
Interior Secretariat.

     "The campaigns are now behind us. Let us reflect on our decision
before we go to vote this Sunday. May the electoral process be the
culmination of the great democratic fiesta we have witnessed in recent
months,'' Zedillo said. Reforms grant international monitors greater
leeway to observe the vote.

     Mexico City residents will elect their mayor for the first time
since the 1920s, taking responsibility for a post previously filled by
presidential appointment. In addition, new provisions now stipulate
that 30 percent of total public campaign funding be distributed equally
among all parties, and the rest according to the percentage of votes
each party got in previous elections.

     "Every vote counts,'' Zedillo said. "Every vote counts toward
maintaining the course of liberty and progress in which we all
participate in the construction of a strong, prosperous and just
            nation.''

     Anticipating the vote, Mexico's stock market soared and the peso
strengthened Friday as investors bet that the elections would not be
disruptive. Fifty-two million Mexicans are eligible to vote Sunday for
the 500-member lower house of Congress, a quarter of the Senate and the
other races.

     Polls indicate the ruling party will easily retain its majority in
the Senate and at least four of the governorships, but is threatened
with losing its decades-old majority in the lower house of Congress, as
well as Mexico City's mayoral race.

     The rebel Zapatista movement in southern Mexico has urged Indians
there to boycott the elections to protest the militarization of the
area and what it calls political parties' failure to address the needs
of Mexico's Indians.

     But the rebel-allied leader of one southern town asked his
followers Friday to vote despite the boycott. Juan Gonzalez Lopez of
San Andres Larrainzar said it was important to go to  the polls "to
demonstrate to the official political party that the opposition is in
the majority.'' (TCR)


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