[PEN-L:4738] Kohl likes Blair

[D Shniad <shniad@xxxxxx>]

THE LONDON TIMES 				JUNE 19, 1996

BLAIR COURTED BY KOHL AS LEADER OF MODERN LEFT

	From Roger Boyes in Bonn

Helmut Kohl, the German Chancellor, gave the most important signal
yet that he has transferred his affection from John Major to Tony Blair
by giving the Labour leader a 85-minute audience.

Mr Blair's 24-hour trip to Bonn was remarkable for the way in which
not only Herr Kohl but the whole German political establishment
courted a man who has yet to win a general election. President Herzog
discussed Europe with him for an hour; top businessmen thundered their
applause as he delivered the Labour line on European monetary union;
the Social Democrats feted him as the leader of the modern Left.

"The fact Blair as Opposition leader was received by both the President
and the Chancellor has caused a stir among political observers," said the
Berliner Zeitung. "Government circles say he is already being regarded
as Major's successor and that explained the unusual interest in him."

Opposition leaders rarely see the Chancellor - Gennadi Zyuganov, the
Russian presidential candidate, was snubbed only last month - and if
they do make it, they are granted between 35 and 45 minutes. Such was
the case of Lionel Jospin, the French Socialist. Malcolm Rifkind, the
Foreign Secretary, was recently granted 45 minutes.

There has been a significant shift in German attitudes towards Labour
since the last Blair visit just over a year ago. Then the Labour leader set
out his European credentials at the Social Democratic think-tank and
met the Chancellor for a short session.

Mr Blair was determined on that occasion to show he was not prepared
to surrender British positions on the national veto; the Chancellor was
careful to praise Mr Major as "thoughtful and clever".

This time there has been no public reference at all to the Prime Minister,
who seems to have flickered in and out of the Bonn talks like Banquo's
ghost. And while Mr Blair indicated that he was not going to be pushed
around by the Germans over beef (on which he presented sharper
conditions than those of the Government), his European repertoire from
the social chapter to monetary union pleased the Chancellor.

"Kohl is coming to see Blair as the new Felipe Gonzalez," said a senior
German official. "It is already obvious that he will fill a gap."

Senor Gonzalez was of a different generation from Herr Kohl and had
fundamentally different politics, but he rarely disappointed the German
leader. It is by no means clear that Mr Blair will be as easy a partner.

The kinship between the Chancellor and European Socialists; Wim Kok
of The Netherlands, Jacques Delors, the late Francois Mitterrand, Senor
Gonzalez, the Italian Centre-Left is not merely a matter of personal
chemistry. The Kohl vision of Europe seems naturally attuned to
European social democracy. That fact alone has robbed Germany's
opposition Social Democrats of any coherent alternative on Europe.

The red-carpet treatment for Mr Blair is more than just a statement of
disillusionment with the Major Government. It reflects a sea-change that
has occurred in German politics. Herr Kohl, say insiders, has now
decided to fight the 1998 general election.

The Chancellor believes his final historic mission of achieving monetary
union is within his grasp and he is determined to be the man who
introduces the single currency. That changes the context of his personal
politics. As he told Mr Blair on Monday: "We need a Britain within
Europe, just as Britain needs us."

Moreover, the chances are strong that Mr Blair will be Prime Minister
when Britain holds the European presidency in the first half of 1998, the
crucial period for monetary union. Mr Blair appeared in Bonn this week
like a young man wanting to impress sceptical in-laws. Within 18
months, however, the relationship may well be differently weighted,
leaving Herr Kohl buffeted by popular opposition to monetary union
dependent on Mr Blair's help.

As on earlier missionary visits to Bonn such as that of Gordon Brown
last month, Labour's sister party, the Social Democrats, are sidelined.
Oskar Lafontaine, their chairman, had to wait patiently until Mr Blair
had finished with the Chancellor for a long-delayed meeting.