OPE-L message, Re: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist

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Quoting Samir AMIN <samir.amin@xxxxxxxxxx>:



> 

> 

> PLEASE PUT ME OFF YOUR MAILING LIST

> 

> YOU SEND MUCH TOO MUCH PAPERS





Gerry and Jurrian, can I suggest that the two of you cease posting on

so many items from other sites, you are completely hogging the list

to the detriment of serious discussion.







> 

> I CANNOT FOLLOW

> 

> REGARDS

> 

> SAMIR AMIN

> 

> 

> 

> > Message du 28/03/08 13:47

> > De : "GERALD LEVY" 

> > A : "Outline on Political Economy mailing list" 

> > Copie Ã  : 

> > Objet : RE: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist

> economic crisis

> > 

> > 

> > What is truly amazing is just how much you can predict, if you overcome 

> > the obstacles of the type that I mentioned, i.e. if you remove the source

> of 

> > unpredictability.

> Hi Jurriaan:

> You've made similar statements before but I honestly can think of no 

> concrete examples of "truly amazing" macro-  or microeconomic forecasts 

> for or within capitalist social formations.  What specific examples are you

> thinking

> of?

> Rather than being amazing, most economic forecasts *when they are right*

> are generally no-bainers.  It often is simply a matter of assuming that the

> rate

> of change of major variables continues in the same direction as has occurred

> in the recent past.  This is often all well and good if you are making a

> projection 

> for a period which is characterized by relative economic stability, e.g. a 

> short-term forecast during one period of capitalist expansion for another

> moment i

> n time of that same  expansion. But, such forecasting models are not

> generally 

> very good at predicting major  changes in market activity.  

> If you think that capitalist economies are characterized by a chaotic

> dynamic

> process then they limits the effectiveness of the forecasting models.

> Minsky-

> type models aren't exactly forecasting models, are they?

> In solidarity, Jerry

> 

> >

> > [ (pas de nom de fichier) (0.1 Ko) ]

> Samir AMIN  Visit the Third Word Formum Web Sites, Visitez les sites du Forum

> du Tiers Monde ;  http://thirdworldforum.net  http://forumtiersmonde.net 

> http://samiramin.org





Paul Cockshott



www.dcs.gla.ac.uk/~wpc

reality.gn.apc.org



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Re: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist economic crisis
