RE: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist economic crisis

[GERALD LEVY <gerald_a_levy@xxxxxxx>]

> What is truly amazing is just how much you can predict, if you overcome

> the obstacles of the type that I mentioned, i.e. if you remove the source of

> unpredictability.

 

 

 

Hi Jurriaan:

 

You've made similar statements before but I honestly can think of no

concrete examples of "truly amazing" macro-  or microeconomic forecasts

for or within capitalist social formations.  What specific examples are you thinking

of?

 

Rather than being amazing, most economic forecasts *when they are right*

are generally no-bainers.  It often is simply a matter of assuming that the rate

of change of major variables continues in the same direction as has occurred

in the recent past.  This is often all well and good if you are making a projection

for a period which is characterized by relative economic stability, e.g. a

short-term forecast during one period of capitalist expansion for another moment i

n time of that same  expansion. But, such forecasting models are not generally

very good at predicting major  changes in market activity. 

 

If you think that capitalist economies are characterized by a chaotic dynamic

process then they limits the effectiveness of the forecasting models. Minsky-

type models aren't exactly forecasting models, are they?

 

In solidarity, Jerry

 

 

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