[OPE] Japan looks to a robot future

["Gerald Levy" <jerry_levy@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23438322/from/ET/

 

I would treat this story with suspicion: the forecasts of robot

growth take no account of the overall marcroeconomic

situation.  There seems to me, also, to be more than a

little unrealism in the article associated with the pace with which one

can expect advances in robotic technology.  The forecast

for increases in the robot population seems also to be tied to

unrealistic expectations concerning both the growth of wages

and projected decline in robotic cost.  The claim by an industry

CEO that "Soon, robots could even replace low-wage workers

at small firms" was not contextualized in terms of either

the international economy or different sectors of the

Japanese economy.

 

Still, there are some interesting stats in the article: e.g.

about 40% of the total world population of robots is in Japan.

(NB: There used to be a measurement issue here because what

was counted as robots in Japan were not all counted as

robots in other countries: i.e. there were different definitions

of robots employed internationally.  One can't tell from the

article what definition is being used.) This suggests that part of

the disproportionate growth of robots in Japan, in terms of the

percent of the global diffusion of robots, is related to 'special

conditions' in Japan. The article asserts  that age distribution in

Japan is a major stimulus for increased diffusion: "the country is

betting on robots to replinish the aging work force".   I question,

though, some of the factors asserted in the article: e.g. in the

section "Friendly helpers" [!] , the author suggests that part of the

reason why robots are socially accepted is because of the

"Japanses psyche" and beliefs associated with the Shinto

religion. I could, perhaps, be convinced otherwise, but this

sounds very suspicious and problematic.

 

Overall, this article seems to me to be an example of the

over-estimation of the projected pace of technological

change that we see so often in the mass media.

 

In solidarity, Jerry

 

_______________________________________________
ope mailing list
ope@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/ope