RE: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist economic crisis

[GERALD LEVY <gerald_a_levy@xxxxxxx>]

In the first instance, that's because because of the unequal and combined development of the world capitalist economy, in which different factors semi-autonomous of each other can advance and amplify, or retard and diminish, the main tendencies at work everywhere.

 

 

Hi Jurriaan:

 

Recent experience, including the Japanese and East Asian economic

and financial crises, suggests that it is difficult to access ex ante what

the impact on the world capitalist economy will be of a major crisis

in an important capitalist economy or region. Didn't most analysts -

Marxian included - project that those crises would have a bigger impact

on both the world capitalist economy and the US economy than they

in fact did have?  Similarly, you will recall over-estimations of the impact

of the "dot.com" crisis of the 1990s on both the US and world capitalist

economies.

 

The related issue in this recession is: is there anything that other major

capitalist economies can and will do to protect themselves from the

"US economic disease"? And, what international "regime of

accumulation" (or pick another term if you prefer) will come out of this

recession?  How will that affect, for example, the relative roles of the US

and the EU in the world capitalist economy?  In other words, will US

hegemony survive this crisis?

 

We seem to be saying the same thing in relation to these questions:

we don't and can't know.  In  other words, it remains to be seen what

will happen.

 

In solidarity, Jerry

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