Re: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist economic crisis

[glevy@xxxxxxxxx]

> Nobody really knows what the effect of the total outfall will be, all
they 
> have is the statistical apparatus of all the wellknown
economic 
> indicators, plus the historical experience of this
kind of crisis. 



Hi Jurriaan: 

What would be historical examples of "this kind of crisis"? Do
you mean 
by this kind of crisis a financial crisis that becomes
a general economic
crisis? There has been a lot of discussion in
recent days comparing the
recent Japanese crisis to the one
originating in the US but this doesn't
seem to me to be on target for
a variety of reasons - not the least of which
is that Japan
experienced a period of deflation whereas the US looks like
it will
experience a recession cum inflation (stagflation).


>
The FT did this article where they claimed that socialists think that a

> recession would be a good thing,


Sadly,
there's some truth to that. There *are* some socialists who have
been 
wishing for an economic crisis for many years: in their
simplistic way
of thinking a recession will mean a radicalization
which will create pre-
and revolutionary situations.  For the
most part, those who believe that are
isolated  from the
workers' movement ... and it shows. 

In solidarity,
Jerry




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