(OPE-L) Re: Consequences of the War against Iraq

[gerald_a_levy <gerald_a_levy@xxxxxxx>]

Re Ian's post yesterday:

 

> I don't agree with the conclusion that the result is just total Israeli
> hegomony: I would have thought that US  hegemony in the Middle east is
> the primary result, from which Israel can expect some capitulations from
> Palestinians.

 

I agree that the (temporary) success  in striving to regain US

hegemony (Cyrus)  or preserve US hegemony (Hans and others),

rather than "Total Israeli hegemony",  is the major context.   Israel, 

although in some ways and times it acts like a "loose cannon",  is

a proxy for larger imperialist powers in the Middle East.

 

Overall, I think that the "Al Jazeerah" assessment (reproduced below)

reflects the disappointment, frustration, and cynicism in the Arab

world today.   The resistance early on in the war to the invasion and

the demonstrations by many millions of people against the war globally

led many to think that Iraq could win the war or at least wage a

credible resistance to the invasion for a protracted period.  Many on

the Left shared this illusion -- indeed, there was much talk on the

Internet of how the battle in Baghdad would be similar to the battle

in Stalingrad.  Now that these optimistic fantasies have been

crushed, many (including, evidently, those who wrote the "Al Jazeerah"

statement) now have become pessimistic and disillusioned.

 

> Another consequence is that so long as
> religiousfundamentalists/chauvinists/terrorists represent the only
> resistance to US hegemony in the middle east, there is an increased
> prospect of terrorist attacks on the US and its allies.

 

Terrorism, though, is not the exclusive franchise of right-wing religious

fundamentalists and national chauvinists.  One could easily envision

scenarios -- especially if there isn't a mass movement on the Left of

workers and peasants -- of terrorist organizations developing (out of

frustration) from the Left.  Yet, increased terrorist attacks against the

US and its allies would most likely empower the right-wing more in the

US and elsewhere and would be used as a rationalization for more

domestic repression and wars.

 

> I don't know
> that we can conclude that the outcome will be a triumph for the stock
> market, though it will represent long term security for US oil supplies.

 

I agree with the first part of your sentence. The stock markets seem to

be reacting to short-run developments. Thus when the war was effectively

ended sooner than was expected, stock market 'euphoria' developed ...

for a day or two.   In a similar way, when -- earlier on in the war -- Iraqi

resistance was greater than anticipated,  there were no stock market

'rallies' on Wall Street.

 

I can see why you might think that a result will be to ensure long-term

security for the US of oil supplies, but there are a lot of possibilities that

could disrupt that prospect in the 'long term'  (e.g. mass uprisings

against US-supported regimes in the Middle East).  

 

> < snip, JL> They are already making threatening noises about
> Syria.

 

Yes, that is an ominous development.  And, of course, now that the main

fighting in Iraq has ended, the US may turn its attention to the two other

members of  Bush's "Axis of Evil" -- Iran and N. Korea.  Indeed, if the US

wanted seriously to invade Iran then they already have their military

forces nearby and could promptly launch an assault.  Meanwhile the

North Korean government, saying that it doesn't want to suffer the same

fate as Iraq,  appears to be pushing ahead with nuclear weapons

development and,  quite possibly, is on a collision course with the US. 

Or, it could be that US attention will now be focused on Latin America. 

 

To turn a slogan from the Vietnam War on its head: one, two, three,

many Iraqs?  *Or*  will it be: one, two, three, many Venezuelas? ... *or*

will it be: one, two,  three, many Chiapas?

 

In solidarity, Jerry

 

 

  Here's an assessment from "Al Jazeerah" online at
  http://www.aljazeerah.us/  :

  "The US, the world's super power, defeats the Third
  World country of Iraq after pounding it for 12 years
  through sanctions.  Casualties: less than 100 soldiers for
  US and about 1.5 million Iraqis. Consequences: Total
  Israeli hegemony over the Middle East, the oil wells are
  secure, the military industry will be thriving for decades,
  and the stock markets are ready to take off."