[OPE-L:6058] RE: war in Afghanistan becomes civil war in many countries?

["Gerald_A_Levy" <Gerald_A_Levy@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The events in the Middle East are rapidly changing and apparently

spinning out-of-control of the US and British governments and the

domestic bourgeois regimes in the region.

 

Even if the Taliban are removed from power and bin Laden and other

leaders of  al-Queda are killed, what else is likely to happen?

 

1) Palestine

 

The mass demonstration in Gaza the other day and its suppression

by the Palestinian police suggests that civil war between the PLO

and its supporters and Islamic fundamentalist groups may be about

to explode.  Arafat seems desperate to maintain control, but this

repression may very likely lead to further dissatisfaction with his

government and a growing radicalization that will seek not merely to

extend the Intifada but to replace the PLO government. One has to

remember in this connection that Arafat brokered a 'peace' deal with

Israel without first gaining consensus among the Palestinian masses.

Indeed, one might view the Intifada and the growth in popularity of

Hamas as a direct consequence of what many in Palestine view as

a 'sell-out' by Arafat and the PLO. If Arafat is overthrown and

replaced by a more militant government (and just the other day a

leader of Al Fatah broke with Arafat) then a *full-scale* war and

invasion by Israel with support from the US (and probably the UK and

some other NATO powers) is an almost certain consequence.

 

2) Pakistan

 

It is becoming increasingly obvious that the current government's

ability to maintain control is becoming more and more precarious.

I don't think that it is an exaggeration to say that Pakistan is on the

verge of a civil war in which many millions of people in Pakistan

support the Taliban and think that the Pakistani government has

sold-out to US imperialism. What will happen if the Pakistani

government falls or even if it is seriously threatened? I believe that

US military intervention would be a likely consequence. But a

US military intervention in Pakistan would, of necessity, be a

*major* war with large amounts of  US causalities an almost certain

consequence and with the result very uncertain. Then there is the

question of Pakistan's nuclear capability .... (there is also the

distinct possibility of an Indian government military response and

of mass 'unrest' in India and Bangladesh).

 

3) Egypt

 

Islamic fundamentalist movements have had the support of many

millions of Egyptians in recent years (and, indeed, many al-

Queda soldiers have been recruited from Egypt).  Undoubtedly,

the recent events will further radicalize these masses and 'de-

stabilize' the Egyptian government. I also think that it is highly

possible that this could lead to full-scale civil war in Egypt. If

there was any real threat of the Egyptian government falling, there

would almost surely be military intervention by the UK, the US,

Israel, and NATO. (And, if there were US -- and UK? --

military troops fighting in Pakistan or Egypt, other states in the

region would almost certainly be pulled into a full-scale regional war).

 

Etc. Etc. (Syria? Indonesia? Libya? Lebanon?)

 

In short, I think it highly likely that the current events will lead to

a further radicalization of the Arab masses (in the form of support for

Islamic fundamentalism) and de-stabilization of the 'moderate'

bourgeois governments in the region. Yet, there can be no

doubt that the US government and other imperial powers will not

just stand idly by and watch this happen. Further and much

larger-scale wars seem a likely response.

 

Do others disagree with the above scenarios?

 

What are the prospects for a working-class and anti-imperialist

radicalization in Arab countries and elsewhere? Or is the Left

becoming increasingly rejected as an alternative by the masses

in favor of reactionary religious movements like the Kaliban

and al-Queda?

 

There is also the question of how all of the above scenarios would

affect the duration and the severity of the current world economic

'downturn' ....

 

In solidarity, Jerry