[OPE-L:6051] war

[Rakesh Bhandari <rakeshb@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

the problem that the US confronts in Afghanistan is the
setting up of a legitimate govt that somehow keeps the Persian speaking Afghani
ethnic groups (the Hazaras and the Tajiks) out of power. The US had supported
the Taleban because it could rely on this Pakhtoon based govt to protect its
oil interests from Iran. At present, the US has been trying to run the
pipelines East-West, and through Turkey. Iran poses a problem because it is the
lowest cost route to Asia, and the Norwegian oil firms have shown an interest
in going through Iran from Turkmenistan which the US will probably try to
pressure using the carrot of the security services which it can offer. The US
has been seeking to keep Iran out of the pipeline business (remember the US
retains sanctions on Iran, Libya and Iraq--which has decreased supply into US
markets). Because of a fear of Iranian influence,  the US has not been willing
to allow a  multi-ethnic, democratic govt to gain power  in Afghanistan.  Oil
and gas must flow through Iran and Afghanistan to meet demand in Asia most
efficiently, but the profits are not to be shared with  Iran.

The first Unocal consortium for the pipeline through Afghanistan included
Japan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, but Iran was excluded. It's not reasonable that
Iran will stand aside as the massively profitable Caspian Sea pipeliness
business is developed, but this has indeed been the goal of US policy. The US
would obviously like to ensure that the Afghani govt comissions  American
companies for the pipelines that go through its country. Whether the US can
install an unequivocally pro US (anti Iranian) Afghani govt that is both
internationally recognized and capable of keeping ethnic stability remains to
be seen. Does not seem to be much basis for optimism.I can't see how the US
lives the Northern Alliance, however much it may rely on the Northern Alliance
in the short term. It would seem that the US would like to split the Pakhtoon
based Taleban govt and and hook them up with the Uzbeks who are not Persian
speaking. This will also pacify Pakistan which has wanted Pakhtoon chauvinist
govt to its North.  But the US interest in  setting up a stable, albeit anti
Iranian,  govt seems to explain why the US has been so eager to extend  its war
against al Qaeda to the Taleban govt itself.

Rakesh