[Marxism] Iran elections: a class analysis

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

To get back to the class analysis thing ... For the 'class' part of the 
analysis, it is stated that Ahmadinejad's constituency, beyond the 
ideological armed forces of Revolutionary Guards and the Basiji's, 
consists of the working class, the peasantry and the poor; in short, the 
way more numerous classes. In other words, in this highly simplistic 
picture, ALL the Iranian working classes, all the peasants, and all the 
poor were unanimously behind Ahmadinejad.

This is a very improbable claim. Its TV version was backed by repeated 
loops of reportage by CNN and BBC type of news agencies, right before 
the elections, when their film crews were sent to a few rural spots that 
had benefited from the Ahmadinejad government's handouts, displaying 
enthusiasm for him. These scenes from a handful of villages, in a 
country whose rural population adds up to about 33% of 70 million 
people, are definitely not representative of the larger picture of rural 
Iran.

The real rural Iran is beset by desperation, more than anything else, 
and most likely can't be bothered with any such niceties as 'elections' 
(Iran's rural population has historically been very deeply apolitical). 
Due to government mismanagement, consistent over the thirty years of 
this regime's existence, farming infrastructure has been deteriorating 
steadily, leading to a huge migration from the country to the city. In 
the past 30-year period, the urban-to-rural ratios have exactly reversed.

During the same period, the population of Iran has grown very rapidly 
also; it literally doubled from 35 million to 70 million. Yet, another 
factor: all these demographic transformations were occurring in a 
country, whose government relies on the sale of oil as a main source of 
revenue (more than 50% of its income; I'll explain why this is 
important, below).

Add another historical-transformational trend: with the rise of 
theocracy by 1979, and considering that the mullahs are tightly allied 
with the merchant (bazaari) classes, the overall stewardship of the 
national economy was transferred from the hands of the industrial to 
that of the commercial bourgeoisie. Consequently, commerce, buying and 
selling, instead of production, has become the more significant economic 
activity.

Except for military (and related) industries, of course. There, 
successive governments have consistently invested well. But, just about 
all other branches of industrial capital, mostly private, have not had 
an easy time of developing; definitely not nearly as rapidly as the 
population growth coupled with rural-urban migration would require, in 
order to maintain a stable employment level and to have some, even if 
modest, economic growth rate.

Remember that oil, as an industry, is not labor intensive at all; it is 
highly capital intensive. So, though it brings in the dough for the 
state, as an industry it doesn't employ a significant workforce. (In any 
event, most oil workers in Iran enjoy a very healthy tradition of 
leftist thinking and have proven their progressive mettle in many 
historical battles. You can bet they are not deluded on a mass scale.)

full: 
http://revolutionaryflowerpot.blogspot.com/2009/06/cant-keep-good-people-down.html

________________________________________________
YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
Send list submissions to: Marxism@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Set your options at: 
http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40archives.econ.utah.edu