[Marxism] Iran: army seems non-hostile to opposition protests; trial balloons for coalition

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

NEWS: Robert Fisk describes ?extraordinary scene? in Tehran

[On Tuesday, the Iranian government ?stepped up its crackdown on the
opposition? and also ? told foreign media that they were not allowed to
leave their offices to report on banned rallies and any news reporting would
have to be cleared beforehand,? the *Financial Times* reported.[1]
--  Both sides held large rallies, Najmeh Bozorgmehr and Anna Fifield said.
--  Veteran Mideast reporter Robert Fisk defied the Iranian ban on reporting
on the demonstrations and spoke with Australia?s Radio National reporter
Fran Kelly, who wrote up the conversation as a story.[2]  --  He said he had
witnessed ?a confrontation, in dusk and into the night, between about 15,000
supporters of Ahmadinejad? and ?about 10,000 Mousavi men and women on the
streets, with approximately 500 Iranian special forces, trying to keep them
apart.?  --  Fisk said he saw government special forces protect Mousavi
supporters from the pro-Ahmadinejad crowd. 
--  ?It was quite extraordinary,? Fisk said, ?because it looked as if the
military authorities in Tehran have either taken a decision not to go on
supporting the very brutal militia -- which is always associated with the
presidency here -- or individual soldiers have made up their own mind that
they're tired of being associated with the kind of brutality that left seven
dead yesterday.?  --  ?Quite a lot of policeman are beginning to smile
towards the demonstrators of Mr. Mousavi, who are insisting there must be a
new election because Mr. Ahmadinejad wasn't really elected. 
Quite an extraordinary scene.?  --  ?I haven't ever seen the Iranian
security authorities behaving fairly before and it's quite impressive.? 
--  Fisk said that ?[The protest] is absolutely not against the Islamic
Republic or the Islamic Revolution.  It's clearly an Islamic protest against
specifically the personality, the manner, the language of Ahmadinejad.  They
absolutely despise him but they do not hate or dislike the Islamic Republic
that they live in.?  --Mark]

http://www.ufppc.org/content/view/8746/

1.

Iran
I am going to make two points: (1) This is not a revolution movement but
very much a reform movement. The powerful social forces that made the
Iranian revolution of 1979 are involved to a degree, but they are peripheral
to the middle classes (who are quite large in Iran) and to sections of the
bourgeoisie. This does not make demands for more democratic rights, etc.,
reactionary in this situation. But claims that this is the beginning of a
socialist revolution are, at this point, simply hallucinatory. 

(2) The main measure of the success of the movement is whether it is able to
open up more political rights and more room for struggle and maneuver for
the oppressed and exploited, not who becomes president or what precise deal
is cut to end it, if one can be reached.

(3) In my opinion the thing most to be avoided here is a Tien An Men type
crackdown. The damage this would do to the gains of the Iranian revolution,
which are substantial, would be enormous, and it would also be a tremendous
setback for the defense of Iran against imperialism at home and abroad. I
think that Iran is much less well positioned than China was to ride out or
ignore or possibly survive the worldwide political consequences of such an
event.

(4) So I am warning everybody that if a deal can be cut to settle this round
of conflict short of civil war or any other kind of "final conflict," I
will be expressing relief, not screaming "sellout!
Fred Feldman



POLITICAL BATTLE PLAYS OUT ON STREETS
By Najmeh Bozorgmehr and Anna Fifield

Financial Times (London)
June 16, 2009 (19:04 BST -- 2234 Tehran time -- 1104 PDT)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5556f0dc-5a9c-11de-8c14-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=be75
219e-940a-11da-82ea-0000779e2340.html

TEHRAN -- Mahmoud AhmadiNejad?s supporters gathered in the streets of
central Tehran in huge numbers on Tuesday in a direct challenge to Monday?s
mass protests in support of Mir Hossein Moussavi, the president?s rival, and
as the Iranian government stepped up its crackdown on the opposition.

For the fourth day since a disputed presidential election, the battle of the
rallies played out on the streets of Tehran.  The crisis showed no signs of
abating, in spite of the decision by the Guardian Council, the
constitutional watchdog, to recount some of the votes.

The Guardian Council, dominated by hardliners, rejected the opposition?s
calls for a re-run of the election.  It urged candidates to file their
documented complaints about each ballot box.

An aide to Mr. Mousavi, the moderate presidential candidate who insists that
Mr. Ahmadinejad?s victory in the Friday election was fraudulent, said that
recounting of some ballot boxes would not be ­sufficient.

He said Mr. Mousavi demanded that the Guardian Council establish a
fact-finding mission that would include representatives of senior clergy,
candidates, an independent lawyer, and judiciary and government officials.
 ?We believe that this election is fundamentally wrong and should be
re-run,? Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour said.  ?Our problem is not one or two
ballot boxes.?

The government pushed ahead with its campaign to discredit Mr. Mousavi and
discourage protests, more of which were held on Tuesday in defiance of an
interior ministry ban and strict restrictions on communications, including
text messages.

As state television highlighted the damage caused by rioting, and, in an
unusual move, revealed that seven people had been killed at Monday?s Mousavi
rally, the president?s supporters poured on to the streets of central
Tehran.

According to witnesses the Ahmadinejad supporters chanted:  ?Down with Great
Britain, down with Israel, down with America,? and held signs
saying:  ?Shut down the BBC and the British embassy.?

The culture ministry told foreign media that they were not allowed to leave
their offices to report on banned rallies and any news reporting would have
to be cleared beforehand.

Separately, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a leading reformist and former
vice-president who backed Mehdi Karroubi in the election, was arrested, his
office said.

Mr. Mousavi?s supporters flocked to Vali Asr Street -- Tehran?s main artery
-- even after the seven deaths the previous day.  Mr. Moussavi, who did not
attend Tuesday?s rally, urged his supporters ?not [to] fall in[to] the trap
of street riots? and to ?exercise self-restraint.?

They bore signs declaring ?Mousavi is our elected president,? continuing
their calls for the disputed election, which Mr. Ahmadinejad won by a
surprisingly large margin, to be re-run.

There were reports of student protests at several universities beyond those
at Tehran University.

In the northeastern city of Tabriz, the main university and dormitory were
closed on Tuesday while in Shiraz, the southern city, about 100 people were
arrested after clashes near a university.

2.

EXTRAORDINARY SCENES: ROBERT FISK IN IRAN By Robert Fisk

ABC News (Australia)
June 16, 2009 (1915 PDT -- Jun. 17, 0645 Tehran time)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/17/2600571.htm

The long-standing Middle East correspondent for *The Independent*, Robert
Fisk, is defying the government crackdown on foreign media reporting in
Iran.

As he explains, he has been travelling around the streets of Tehran all day
and most of the night and things are far from quiet:

I've just been witnessing a confrontation, in dusk and into the night,
between about 15,000 supporters of Ahmadinejad -- supposedly the president
of Iran -- who are desperate to down the supporters of Mr. Mousavi, who
thinks he should be the president of Iran.

There were about 10,000 Mousavi men and women on the streets, with
approximately 500 Iranian special forces, trying to keep them apart.

It was interesting that the special forces -- who normally take the side of
Ahmadinejad's Basij militia -- were there with clubs and sticks in their
camouflage trousers and their purity white shirts and on this occasion the
Iranian military kept them away from Mousavi's men and women.

In fact at one point, Mousavi's supporters were shouting 'thank you, thank
you' to the soldiers.

One woman went up to the special forces men, who normally are very brutal
with Mr. Mousavi's supporters, and said 'can you protect us from the Basij?'
He said 'with God's help.'

It was quite extraordinary because it looked as if the military authorities
in Tehran have either taken a decision not to go on supporting the very
brutal militia -- which is always associated with the presidency here -- or
individual soldiers have made up their own mind that they're tired of being
associated with the kind of brutality that left seven dead yesterday --
buried, by the way secretly by the police -- and indeed the seven or eight
students who were killed on the university campus 24 hours earlier.

Quite a lot of policeman are beginning to smile towards the demonstrators of
Mr. Mousavi, who are insisting there must be a new election because Mr
Ahmadinejad wasn't really elected.  Quite an extraordinary scene.

There were a lot of stones thrown and quite a lot of bitter fighting,
hand-to-hand but at the end of the day the special forces did keep them
apart.

I haven't ever seen the Iranian security authorities behaving fairly before
and it's quite impressive.

PROTESTS

Certainly the authorities were very struck by the enormous number of people
who turned out for Sunday's march . . . from the Square of Revolution to the
Square of Freedom.

I walked alongside that march the whole way and was stunned to find one
million people at the end, it must have been one million at least.

There were seven killed after that instant alone so we're having a lot of
deaths, much more than we realize, in fact some people say there are more
deaths than have been recorded.

There was 100 meters of no man's land between these thousands of people and
I actually walked up and listened to a Basij guy urging his people on to
attack the forces of the opposition, saying 'we fought and defended our
country in the Iran-Iraq war and now we have to defend it again and we have
to move forward.'  You could actually just walk a few meters and talk to
Mousavi's people.

Some of them came down and tried to embrace the Basij and indeed the leaders
who support the man who indeed thinks he is the president.  One man, in the
Muslim tradition, tried to kiss him on both cheeks and the Basij man moved
back irritably and angry, he didn't want to be touched by this man.

There was a great deal of anger on the part of Ahmadinejad's supporters.

SAFE TO REPORT

No one's told me not to drive around so I go and see wounded people and go
and watch these confrontations and no one seems to bother me.

I rather think an awful lot of journalists take it too seriously.  If you
get in a car and go out and see things, no one's going to stop you, frankly.

I went to the earlier demonstration in the center of the city, which was
solely by Ahmadinejad's people, immensely boring, although I did notice one
or two points where they were shouting 'death to the traitor.'  They meant
Mousavi.

You've got to realize that what's happening at the moment is that the actual
authorities are losing control of what's happening on the streets and that's
very dangerous and damaging to them.

It's interesting that the actual government newspapers reported at one point
that Sunday's march was not provocative by the marchers.  They carried a
very powerful statement by the chancellor of the Tehran University,
condemning the police and Basij, who broke into university dormitories on
Sunday night and killed seven students.

They've even carried reports of the seven dead after the march on Sunday .
. . almost as if, not to compromise but they're trying to get a little bit
closer to the other side.

ELECTION RESULT

My suspicion is that [Ahmadinejad] might have actually won the election but
more like 52 or 53 per cent.  It's possible that Mousavi got closer to
38 per cent.

But I think the Islamic Republic's régime here wanted to humiliate the
opponent and so fiddle the figures, even if Ahmadinejad had won.

The problem with that is they're now going to claim they're going to need a
recount.  If the recount is to actually give Mousavi the presidency, someone
is going to have to pay the price for such an extraordinary fraud of
claiming Ahmadinejad won 30, 40, 50 per cent more than he should have done.

You've got to remember as well, on the election night, if the count was
correct it meant that they would have had to have counted five million votes
in two hours.

NEXT FEW DAYS

Someone, presumably the supreme leader, who is constitutionally the leader
of all Iran and the clerical leader, Ayatollah Khamanei, he's going to have
to work out a way of stopping these constant street confrontations.

We've got another great demonstration by the opposition tomorrow evening in
the center of the city. I suspect what they're going to have to do is think
whether they can have a system where they reintroduce a prime ministership,
so the president has someone underneath him.

Maybe we'd have President Ahmadinejad and a Prime Minister Mousavi or maybe
a joint presidency.

All this is what people talk about but it means changing the constitution,
it means having a referendum.  They didn't believe that the opposition could
be so strong and would keep on going.

[The protest] is absolutely not against the Islamic Republic or the Islamic
Revolution.

It's clearly an Islamic protest against specifically the personality, the
manner, the language of Ahmadinejad.  They absolutely despise him but they
do not hate or dislike the Islamic Republic that they live in.

--Based on an interview with Radio National's Fran Kelly




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