[Marxism] In Iran, Khamenei blinks, just a little, for now

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

But the suggestion that some kind of due process is required to ratify the
election is significant, though whether every ballot will be reviewed (if
they still exist), is at least doubtful.
Fred Feldman

June 16, 2009
News Analysis
In Iran, an Iron Cleric, Now Blinking 
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR
For two decades, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has remained a shadowy presence at
the pinnacle of power in Iran, sparing in his public appearances and
comments. Through his control of the military, the judiciary and all public
broadcasts, the supreme leader controlled the levers he needed to maintain
an iron if discreet grip on the Islamic republic. 

But in a rare break from a long history of cautious moves, he rushed to
bless President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for winning the election, calling on
Iranians to line up behind the incumbent even before the standard three days
required to certify the results had passed. 

Then angry crowds swelled in cities around Iran, and he backpedaled,
announcing Monday that the 12-member Council of Guardians, which vets
elections and new laws, would investigate the vote.

"After congratulating the nation for having a sacred victory, to say now
that there is a possibility that it was rigged is a big step backward for
him," said Abbas Milani, the director of Stanford University's Iranian
studies program.

Few suggest yet that Ayatollah Khamenei's hold on power is at risk. But,
analysts say, he has opened a serious fissure in the face of Islamic rule
and one that may prove impossible to patch over, particularly given the
fierce dispute over the election that has erupted amid the elite veterans of
the 1979 revolution. Even his strong links to the powerful Revolutionary
Guards - long his insurance policy - may not be decisive as the
confrontation in Iran unfolds. 

"Khamenei would always come and say, 'Shut up; what I say goes,' " said Azar
Nafisi, the author of two memoirs about Iran, including "Reading Lolita in
Tehran." "Everyone would say, 'O.K., it is the word of the leader.' Now the
myth that there is a leader up there whose power is unquestionable is
broken." 

Those sensing that important change may be afoot are quick to caution that
Ayatollah Khamenei, as a student of the revolution that swept the shah from
power, could still resort to overwhelming force to crush the demonstrations.

In calling for the Guardian Council to investigate the vote, he has bought
himself a 10-day grace period for the anger to subside, experts note. The
outcome is not likely to be a surprise. Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati, the
council's chairman, is one of Ayatollah Khamenei's few staunch allies among
powerful clerics. In addition, Ayatollah Khamenei appoints half the members,
while the other half are nominated by the head of the judiciary, another
appointee of the supreme leader.

"It is simply a faux investigation to quell the protests," said Karim
Sadjadpour, an Iran specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace.

Ayatollah Khamenei was an unlikely successor to the patriarch of the
revolution, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and his elevation to the post
of supreme leader in 1989 might have sown the seeds for the political crisis
the country is facing today.

The son of a cleric from the holy city of Mashhad, Ayatollah Khamenei was
known as something of an open-minded mullah, if not exactly liberal. He had
a good singing voice; played the tar, a traditional Iranian stringed
instrument; and wrote poetry. His circle of friends included some of the
country's most accomplished poets. 

In the violence right after the overthrow of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, a
bomb hidden in a tape recorder permanently crippled his right arm, and he
was elevated to president in 1981 after another bomb killed the incumbent.
He managed to attract the ire of Ayatollah Khomeini himself once,
ironically, by publicly questioning some aspects of having a
vilayat-e-faqih, or supreme leader system. 

He also clashed repeatedly with Mir Hussein Moussavi, the powerful prime
minister at the time. After being trounced in the official election results
by Mr. Ahmadinejad, Mr. Moussavi, the reformist presidential candidate,
challenged Ayatollah Khamenei in the one area where he has always been
vulnerable: his religious credentials. 

Mr. Moussavi wrote an open letter to the clergy in the holy city of Qom
about the election results. By appealing to the grand clerics, he was
effectively saying Ayatollah Khamenei's word as supreme leader lacked
sufficient weight.

Ayatollah Khamenei was elevated from the middle clerical rank, hojatolislam,
to ayatollah overnight in what was essentially a political rather than a
religious decision. He earned undying scorn from many keepers of Shiite
tradition, even though Iran's myth-making machinery cranked up, with a
witness professing he saw a light pass from Ayatollah Khomeini to Ayatollah
Khamenei much the way the imams of centuries past were anointed. 

Still, lacking a political base of his own, he set about creating one in the
military. It was the end of the Iran-Iraq war, and many senior officers
returning from the front demanded a role in politics or the economy for
their sacrifices. Ayatollah Khamenei became a source of patronage for them,
giving them important posts in broadcasting or as leaders of the vast
foundations that had confiscated much of the pre-revolution private sector. 

"By empowering them, he got power," said Mehdi Khalaji of the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy. 

In the wake of the election debacle, questions are being raised about who
controls whom. But over the years, Ayatollah Khamenei gradually surmounted
expectations that he would be eclipsed. 

"He is a weak leader, who is extremely smart in allying himself, or in
maneuvering between centers of power," said one expert at New York
University, declining to use his name because he travels to Iran frequently.
"Because of the factionalism of the state, he seems to be the most powerful
person."

But many analysts say the differences between factions have never been quite
so pronounced nor public as in the past few days. Former President Ali Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani, once a close Khamenei ally who helped him become supreme
leader, sent an open letter to him in the days before the election warning
that any fraud would backfire, Mr. Milani noted. If he allowed the military
to ignore the public will and to destroy senior revolutionary veterans, the
decision would haunt him, Mr. Rafsanjani warned: "Tomorrow it is going to be
you."

Everyone speaking of Ayatollah Khamenei tends to use the word "cautious," a
man who never gambles. But he now faces a nearly impossible choice. If he
lets the demonstrations swell, it could well change the system of clerical
rule. If he uses violence to stamp them out, the myth of a popular mandate
for the Islamic revolution will die. 

"The Iranian leadership is caught in a paradox," said Ms. Nafisi, the author
of memoirs about Iran. 




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