Re: [Marxism] Obama influencing Middle East elections

[John <johnedmundson@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

On Thu, 2009-06-11 at 13:48 -0700, Eli Stephens wrote:
> Obama supporters from the media to Daily Kos have been trumpeting this
>  meme loudly, and it may well be true, but the evidence mustered for it
>  doesn't pass the "post hoc ergo propter hoc" test.
> 
> We're told the Hezbollah's defeat in Lebanon was "unexpected." Maybe it
>  was if you believed the polls, but why should be believe the polls in
>  Lebanon were any more accurate than they were in, say, the New
>  Hampshire primary? When we get a post-election poll that says 8% of
>  the population changed their planned vote after hearing Obama's
>  speech, that would qualify as better evidence, but until I see such a
>  poll, I'll refrain from giving Obama "credit" for influencing the
>  election in Lebanon or in Iran.

While I wouldn't discount the Obama factor entirely, I would have
thought a major factor would be the fact that the Lebanese electoral
system is still rigged to massively favour the Christian population and
disadvantage the Shi'a population. Or has that all changed? Where can
you find a good analysis of what actually occurred in the Lebanese
elections?
Cheers,
John


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