[Marxism] Stratfor: Iran's political system approaching impasse

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

IRAN'S POLITICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING IMPASSE

Stratfor
June 8, 2009
http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20090607

The last debate in Iran?s first-ever televised series of presidential
candidate debates will take place on Monday.  The debates among candidates
seeking election on June 12 have been marked by vicious attacks from
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- not only against his main challenger,
former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, but also against several other
key figures within the Iranian political establishment.  They include
Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the regime?s second most influential
leader (after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei).  The president has
made several serious charges against his opponents, laying bare the extent
of the rifts within the state.

Ahmadinejad claimed to have evidence that Rafsanjani (a former two-term
president who currently heads Iran?s two most powerful institutions) and his
family accumulated their wealth illegally, and that Rafsanjani had conspired
with an Arab state to undermine Ahmadinejad?s government.  He went so far as
to accuse Mousavi?s wife (an intellectual and dean of a university), who has
been at the forefront of her husband?s campaign, of securing her academic
credentials through inappropriate or illegal means. 
The situation is serious enough that Khamenei, who had supported Ahmadinejad
in his bid for a second term, criticized the president, saying, ?One doesn?t
like to see a nominee, for the sake of proving himself, seeking to negate
somebody else.  I have no problem with debate, dialogue, and criticism, but
these debates must take place within a religious framework.?

>From Khamenei?s point of view, the polarization of state and society in the
run-up to the election makes it all the more difficult to manage the rival
factions, as he has done for the past two decades.

Undoubtedly, this is shaping up to be the most important presidential
election in Iran?s history, especially because it is a bellwether of what is
happening at a higher level:  a potential unraveling of the political system
that has been in place since Iran?s 1979 revolution.  As we have noted
previously, the cohesiveness of the Iranian state has been deteriorating,
with a rift between the president?s ultra-conservative camp and the
pragmatic conservative camp led by Rafsanjani.  The United States?
offer of rapprochement has made the situation even more urgent, as Tehran
needs to arrive at an internal consensus on the direction of foreign policy
and seek economic rehabilitation.

Ahmadinejad?s policies have been exacerbated divisions that have long
existed, especially since the 1989 death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. 
Until fairly recently, his successor, Khamenei, kept this internal dissent
contained by balancing between different factions that have controlled
various state institutions.  During Ahmadinejad?s presidency, the internal
struggle has shifted:  Where it once was a matter of the policy preferences
of rival camps within a conservative-dominated political establishment, it
has become a situation in which the nature of the Islamic republic?s
political system is in question.

Because he is the first Iranian president who is not also a cleric,
Ahmadinejad sought to strengthen his position by claiming that his policies
were guided by the highly revered and hidden 12th imam of the Shia, the
Mahdi.  This claim has unnerved the clerics:  It undermines their privileged
position, not only in the Iranian political system but also in religious
terms.  The implication of this is that if laypeople have access to the
messiah, there is no need for them to rely on clerics
-- who historically have had tremendous influence among the masses.

Meanwhile, the élite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is emerging
as a powerful player in Iran, currently second only to the clerics.  But as
the clerical community becomes marred by internal disagreements and the
aging ayatollahs who founded the republic anticipate the day when they will
be succeeded by a second generation, the IRGC is very likely to emerge as
the most powerful force within the state.  The ayatollahs have used their
religious position to control the ideological force; if they should become
weaker, the non-clerical politicians and technocrats will have a tough time
dealing with the IRGC.

The first step in the trajectory of Iran will become evident with the
outcome of the June 12 election.  But regardless of who wins, the Islamic
republic is reaching a point where the political system, facing a great deal
of stress and strain, is likely to evolve into something else.  It is too
early to predict the exact outcome of this struggle, but what is clear is
that the clerics are under pressure from many sides.




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