[Marxism] The DPRK (north Korea) ends truce with ROK (south) over southern threats to shipping

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

In my opinion, one of the most important factors that has prevented the US
imperialists from dropping nuclear weapons in wars since they did so in 1945
has been proliferation. Of course the US sponsored proliferation in Israel
and South Africa, and placed its own nuclear weapons in South Korea for
decades, and made no strong objections when Britain and France did so.

But the fact that the USSR, China, Pakistan, and India, and now North Korea
have developed nuclear weapons, the fact that Iran has approached
nuclear-weapons capacity while not projecting producing them, has become an
obstacle to their use by imperialism, and even threatens to make their use
by the imperialists impossible. Without this development, there would be no
possibility of eliminating nuclear weapons -- and there still may be little
-- short of revolution in the United States. 

But whatever possibility exists today to move toward abolishing nuclear
weapons exists in part only because those the US regards as foes (and
therefore as potential targets, including Cuba and others) have been able to
get them or forge alliances with countries that have them. With all the
problems that accompany this, the process has been overall a lesser evil to
a US nuclear monopoly.
Fred Feldman
Without the advances to and toward nuclear-weapons capacity, there would be
no chance of adopting the international nuclear-test ban treaty which
Congress rejected with great nationalist fanfare during the Clinton
administration.

Of course, the spread of nuclear weapons is a dangerous business despite
these historical facts. And the aim of abolishing these weapons is
legitimate, as South Africa did when it got rid of its nuclear weapons and
nuclear weapons programs after the end of the apartheid regime.

Frankly, I see no sign that the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (north
Korea) is an irrational or suicidal state, and no sign that it plans to
launch its handful of nuclear weapons against the Republic of Korea(south
Korea) or Japan. The evidence that the DPRK is more likely to take
irrational military action than is, for example, the United States
government is completely nonexistent.

Like the Iranian government they are aiming to prevent attacks on their
country, defend its sovereignty, and avoid being the victims of nuclear
intimidation by others. In my opinion, they, like Iran or Cuba or others,
have the sovereign right to decide how to go about accomplishing this
responsibility.

Their response to the southern state's decision to help US imperialism
interdict shipping to North Korea is a reasonable one, and I hope it deters
such action on the ROK's part. The alarm in Russia over the dangers in the
situation, which come primarily from Washington, should make the Russian
government hesitate to support acts of aggression, including economic,
against Korea.

In part, Washington is screaming about developments that tend to undermine
the credibility and usefulness of their constant threats to use nuclear
weapons": "Everything is on the table."

The following articles are useful assessments of the present situation. The
introduction is by Professor Mark Jensen of the Washington State-based Snow
News peace list.
Fred Feldman




NEWS & BACKGROUND: N. Korea renounces 56-year-old armistice with S. Korea

[North Korea accused South Korea of "declar[ing] war" on it on Wednesday and
said it would be "compelled to take a decisive measure," the Associated
Press reported.  --  "The North Korean army called [Seoul's decision to join
an international program to intercept ships suspected of aiding nuclear
proliferation] a violation of the armistice the two Koreas signed in 1953 to
end their three-year war, and said it would no longer honor the treaty,"
Hyung-Jin Kim said.  --  "The regime also said it could no longer promise
the safety of U.S. and South Korean warships and civilian vessels in the
waters near the Korea's western maritime border,"
and even threatened to "hit the U.S. on the raw, if necessary."  -- Reuters
said there are reports that Russia is taking unspecified "precautionary
measures" in anticipation of possible conflict.[2]  --  In a background
piece, AP's James Hanley noted that in all of history "eight nations [have]
exploded 2,054 nuclear bombs in the air, under water, and below ground, from
the mushroom cloud of July 16, 1945, at Alamogordo, N.M., and the U.S.
bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, to North Korea's underground blast on
Monday, its second test, estimated at a yield of a few kilotons."[3]
--Mark]

http://www.ufppc.org/content/view/8665/

1.

N. KOREA THREATENS TO ATTACK U.S., S. KOREAN WARSHIPS By Hyung-Jin Kim

Associated Press
May 27, 2009

http://wire.antiwar.com/2009/05/27/nkorea-threatens-to-attack-us-skorean-war
ships-4/

North Korea threatened military action Wednesday against U.S. and South
Korean warships plying the waters near the Koreas' disputed maritime border,
raising the specter of a naval clash just days after the regime's
underground nuclear test.

In Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton warned that
Pyongyang faced unspecified consequences because of its "provocative and
belligerent" acts.

Pyongyang, reacting angrily to Seoul's decision to join an international
program to intercept ships suspected of aiding nuclear proliferation, called
South Korea's decision tantamount to a declaration of war.

"Now that the South Korean puppets were so ridiculous as to join in the said
racket and dare declare a war against compatriots," North Korea is
"compelled to take a decisive measure," the Committee for the Peaceful
Reunification of Korea said in a statement carried by state media.

The North Korean army called it a violation of the armistice the two Koreas
signed in 1953 to end their three-year war, and said it would no longer
honor the treaty.

South Korea's military said Wednesday it was prepared to "respond sternly"
to any North Korean provocation.

Clinton said "there are consequences to such actions," referring to
discussions in the United Nations meant to punish North Korea for its
nuclear and missile tests.

She also underscored the firmness of the U.S. treaty commitment to defend
South Korea and Japan, U.S. allies in easy reach of North Korean missiles.

North Korea's latest belligerence comes as the U.N. Security Council debates
how to punish the regime for testing a nuclear bomb Monday in what President
Barack Obama called a "blatant violation" of international law.

Ambassadors from the five permanent veto-wielding council members -- the
United States, Russia, China, Britain, and France -- as well as Japan and
South Korea were working out the details of a new resolution.

The success of any new sanctions would depend on how aggressively China, one
of North Korea's only allies, implements them.

"It's not going too far to say that China holds the keys on sanctions,"
said Kim Sung-han, an international relations professor at Seoul's Korea
University.

South Korea, divided from the North by a heavily fortified border, had
responded to the nuclear test by joining the Proliferation Security
Initiative, a U.S.-led network of nations seeking to stop ships from
transporting the materials used in nuclear bombs.

Seoul previously resisted joining the PSI in favor of seeking reconciliation
with Pyongyang, but pushed those efforts aside Monday after the nuclear test
in the northeast.

North Korea warned Wednesday that any attempt to stop, board, or inspect its
ships would constitute a "grave violation."

The regime also said it could no longer promise the safety of U.S. and South
Korean warships and civilian vessels in the waters near the Korea's western
maritime border.

"They should bear in mind that the (North) has tremendous military muscle
and its own method of strike able to conquer any targets in its vicinity at
one stroke or hit the U.S. on the raw, if necessary," the army said in a
statement carried by state media.

The maritime border has long been a flashpoint between the two Koreas. 
North Korea disputes the line unilaterally drawn by the United Nations at
the end of the Koreas' three-year war in 1953, and has demanded it be
redrawn further south.

The truce signed in 1953 and subsequent military agreements call for both
sides to refrain from warfare, but doesn't cover the waters off the west
coast.

North Korea has used the maritime border dispute to provoke two deadly naval
skirmishes -- in 1999 and 2002.

On Wednesday, the regime promised "unimaginable and merciless punishment"
for anyone daring to challenge its ships.

Pyongyang also reportedly restarted its weapons-grade nuclear plant, South
Korean media said.

The *Chosun Ilbo* newspaper said U.S. spy satellites detected signs of steam
at the North's Yongbyon nuclear complex, an indication it may have started
reprocessing nuclear fuel.  The report, which could not be confirmed, quoted
an unidentified government official. South Korea's Yonhap news agency also
carried a similar report.

The move would be a major setback for efforts aimed at getting North Korea
to disarm.

North Korea had stopped reprocessing fuel rods as part of an international
deal.  In 2007, it agreed to disable the Yongbyon reactor in exchange for
aid and demolished a cooling tower at the complex.

The North has about 8,000 spent fuel rods which, if reprocessed, could allow
it to harvest 13 to 18 pounds (six to eight kilograms) of plutonium
-- enough to make at least one nuclear bomb, experts said.  North Korea is
believed to have enough plutonium for at least a half dozen atomic bombs.

Further ratcheting up tensions, North Korea test-fired five short-range
missiles over the past two days, South Korean officials confirmed.

Russia's foreign minister said world powers must be firm with North Korea
but take care to avoid inflaming tensions further.

The world "must not rush to punish North Korea just for punishment's sake,"
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, adding that Russia wants a Security
Council resolution that will help restart stalled six-nation talks over
North Korea's nuclear programs and will not provoke Pyongyang into even more
aggressive activity.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak urged officials to "remain calm" in the
face of North Korean threats, said Lee Dong-kwan, his spokesman.

Pyongyang isn't afraid of any repercussions for its actions, a North Korean
newspaper, the *Minju Joson*, said Wednesday.

"It is a laughable delusion for the United States to think that it can get
us to kneel with sanctions," it said in an editorial.  "We've been living
under U.S. sanctions for decades, but have firmly safeguarded our ideology
and system while moving our achievements forward.  The U.S. sanctions policy
toward North Korea is like striking a rock with a rotten egg."

--Associated Press writer Steve Gutterman in Moscow and Edith M. Lederer at
the United Nations contributed to this report.

2.

RUSSIA FEARS KOREA CONFLICT COULD GO NUCLEAR -- IFAX By Oleg Shchedrov

Reuters
May 27, 2009

http://in.reuters.com/article/email/idINIndia-39913120090527?sp=true

MOSCOW -- Russia is taking security measures as a precaution against the
possibility tension over North Korea could escalate into nuclear war, news
agencies quoted officials as saying on Wednesday.

Interfax quoted an unnamed security source as saying a stand-off triggered
by Pyongyang's nuclear test on Monday could affect the security of Russia's
far eastern regions, which border North Korea.

"The need has emerged for an appropriate package of precautionary measures,"
the source said.

"We are not talking about stepping up military efforts but rather about
measures in case a military conflict, perhaps with the use of nuclear
weapons, flares up on the Korean Peninsula," he added.  The official did not
elaborate further.

North Korea has responded to international condemnation of its nuclear test
and a threat of new U.N. sanctions by saying it is no longer bound by an
armistice signed with South Korea at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

Itar-Tass news agency quoted a Russian Foreign Ministry official as saying
the "war of nerves" over North Korea should not be allowed to grow into a
military conflict, a reference to Pyongyang's decision to drop out of the
armistice deal.

"DANGEROUS BRINKMANSHIP"

"We assume that a dangerous brinkmanship, a war of nerves, is under way, but
it will not grow into a hot war," the official told Tass.  "Restraint is
needed."

The Foreign Ministry often uses statements sourced to unnamed officials,
released through official news agencies, to lay down its position on
sensitive issues.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has condemned the North Korean tests but
his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has warned the international community
against hasty decisions.

Russia is a veto-wielding permanent member of the U.N. Security Council
which is preparing to discuss the latest stand-off over the peninsula.

In the past, Moscow has been reluctant to support Western calls for
sanctions.  But Russian officials in the United Nations have said that this
time the authority of the international body is at stake.

Medvedev told South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who called him on
Wednesday, that Russia was prepared to work with Seoul on a new U.N.
Security Council resolution and to revive international talks on the North
Korean nuclear issue.

"The heads of state noted that the nuclear test conducted by North Korea on
Monday is a direct violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution and
impedes international law," a Kremlin press release said.

(Additional reporting by Conor Humphries)

3.

NK TEST, U.S. TREATY OK COULD SET OFF CHAIN REACTION By Charles J. Hanley

Associated Press
May 26, 2009

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/05/26/national/w104144
D77.DTL

A decade after its defeat on the Senate floor, the treaty to ban all atomic
bomb tests has found new life in the age of Obama, and at a time of renewed
nuclear defiance by North Korea.

Monday's bomb test by the Pyongyang government "underlines the urgency of
the entry into force of the (treaty) and the necessity of putting an end to
all nuclear explosions for all time," said the pact's chief booster, Tibor
Toth, who heads the U.N.-affiliated Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
Organization.

In the coming months in Washington -- and in other key capitals -- leaders
will make cold strategic calculations as they weigh military balances and
the future role of doomsday weapons in deciding whether to ratify the CTBT.
Passage in the Senate this time around may set dominoes toppling from
Beijing to New Delhi and beyond, Toth said.

"The U.S. example will be defining," he told the Associated Press in an
interview at his Vienna headquarters.

Negotiated in the 1990s, the treaty specified 44 nuclear-capable states --
from Algeria to Vietnam -- that must give full formal approval before it can
take effect, putting the power of international law and the U.N.
Security Council behind the ban.  All but nine of those have ratified, along
with the governing bodies of 113 other nations.

Besides the U.S., the holdouts among the 44 are China, Egypt, India,
Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan.

Although earlier treaties outlawed all but underground nuclear blasts under
150 kilotons -- equivalent to 150,000 tons of TNT -- this one would impose a
blanket ban on any test anywhere, with compliance overseen by Toth's agency.

It would end an era in which eight nations exploded 2,054 nuclear bombs in
the air, under water, and below ground, from the mushroom cloud of July 16,
1945, at Alamogordo, N.M., and the U.S. bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki,
to North Korea's underground blast on Monday, its second test, estimated at
a yield of a few kilotons.

The tests helped weapon designers build ever more compact, durable, and
finely tuned bombs.  Ending testing would put a cap on developing new
weapons, halting proliferation to more states and giving nuclear-armed
states more confidence to negotiate deep reductions, treaty proponents say.

President Barack Obama endorsed this view in an agenda-setting speech in
Prague, Czech Republic, on April 5, when he said he would "aggressively"
pursue Senate ratification.  A vote may come next year, after a lobbying
campaign to win the required two-thirds Senate majority.

Republicans controlled the upper house in 1999 when the pact was rejected
51-48 on a largely party-line vote.  The debate focused on whether the
treaty's monitoring system could detect clandestine nuclear blasts, and
whether the U.S. arsenal would remain safe and reliable without tests.

Much has changed since then:  The monitoring system has grown into a $1
billion, high-tech worldwide network, and the U.S. weapons stockpile has
been certified reliable annually since the 1990s, as the U.S. and four other
original nuclear powers -- Russia, Britain, France, and China -- have
observed testing moratoriums.

The Senate has changed as well, with a 60-vote Democratic majority likely,
just seven short of two-thirds.  Meanwhile, some influential Republican
voices have shifted to support the treaty, including former secretaries of
state Henry A. Kissinger and George P. Shultz.  Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.,
said during his 2008 presidential campaign the treaty deserved "another
look."

"The climate is different and that's important," former Democratic Sen.
Sam Nunn, a leading arms-control advocate, told the AP.  "The fact the
president has made this a top priority means it's going to get a lot more
attention from the American public than it did the last time."

And more attention from the rest of the world.

"If the U.S. keeps its promise to push for ratification of the CTBT, it will
serve as a catalyst for similar action by other states," Indonesia's U.N.
ambassador, Marty Natalegawa, said May 5 at a disarmament conference in New
York.

Toth said Indonesia, which has no nuclear weapons, is one holdout showing
"positive signs" on ratification.  Another is a big one: China.

"China supports early entry into force of the CTBT," Beijing's arms control
chief, Cheng Jingye, told the same U.N. conference.

It has been clear since 1999 that China withheld ratification because the
U.S. did.  Toth said the Chinese now are "closely following developments in
Washington" and assure him they are preparing to ratify.

If the U.S. Senate accedes, Obama pledges a diplomatic effort to bring other
governments aboard.  Nuclear-armed India is a likely target, since a recent
U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear agreement gives Washington added leverage with
New Delhi.

The Indians' chief nuclear envoy, Shyam Saran, told the AP his country wants
to see broad movement toward abolition of nuclear arms before committing to
a test ban.  Some analysts believe, however, that a CTBT ratification by
China, the Asian rival whose bomb motivated India to build its own, might
induce the Indian "domino" to follow suit.

And what about next-door Pakistan, with at least 40 nuclear warheads, to
traditional enemy India's 50 or more?

"Our response (on CTBT) depends very much on the position taken by India,"
Zamir Akram, Pakistani ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament in
Geneva, told the AP.

In the Middle East, nuclear-armed Israel is known to have backed off early
ratification only because the U.S. did.  Accession to this major nuclear
agreement might help lift the global embargo on civilian nuclear trade with
Israel. Egypt might then logically follow.

If Iran, accused of harboring plans for nuclear bombs, or North Korea, with
rudimentary weapons, remained holdouts, they would face ever-growing
isolation and international pressure to join.

Toth indicated he wouldn't be surprised by a North Korean ratification, if
Pyongyang sees all of the "P-5" -- the original nuclear powers -- behind the
treaty and no longer demanding that North Korea accept restrictions that
they don't.

On the other hand, analysts say, a repeat failure to ratify in Washington
could send dominoes tumbling in the other direction.  China might feel a
need to resume testing to perfect bombs for multiple-warhead missiles, to
match U.S. capabilities. A testing chain reaction among nations might ensue.

"What the nuclear powers do, in fact, does affect the decisions of other
countries," veteran U.S. arms negotiator James Goodby told a
nonproliferation conference in Washington last month.  "And testing is
perhaps the most visible of nuclear weapons activities."




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