[Marxism] Presidents of Venezuela and Colombia Pledge Peace and Economic Development: some thoughts

[nada <dwaltersMIA@xxxxxxxxx>]

Presidents of Venezuela and Colombia Pledge Peace and Economic 
Development: some thoughts.

Headline from this article today:
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news/4369

My comments:

The joint announcement from both presidents of Venezuela and Columbia 
today makes for fascinating news. What a difference 5 or 6 months makes. 
Last October there were threats of a war if Columbia made military 
advances along it's border with Venezuela. Now? Hugs and kisses.

Whatsupwiththat? Well, first, in my opinion, any time trade, economic 
and peace agreements are signed, it's usually a good thing. Notice I 
don't qualify it. I'm simply saying that an Andean war is a *bad thing* 
and that which goes from brinkmanship to trade and keeps people from 
getting killed is good and helps, rather hinders, organization of the 
masses, the development of productive forces, etc etc.

I think the economic key to these proposals (there are several) is 
several fold: to tie Columbia's weaker, somewhat narco-based economy to 
Venezuela's stronger, oil based one and, to move on the building on the 
long proposed pipeline through Columbia to the Pacific coast of that 
country.

This would accomplish several things. One, it would assure Columbia a 
supply of oil over and above it's domestic production. Two, it would 
allow Venezuela to seriously ramp up oil exports to China and Japan. 
Venezuela and Japan agreed last week to increase oil exports to Japan to 
plus 300,000 bbl./day. It is win-win for all stakeholders if it can be 
exported on larger ships that currently can't go through the Panama 
Canal but can load up in Columbia's Pacific Coast.

The real plumb is China. During Chavez's trip to Asia, President Hu 
agreed to head toward "over 1 million barrels" a day to his country from 
Venezuela by 2013. They already import about 300,000 bbl/day. So this is 
significant. It also allows for the long stated desire by PDVSA to 
diversify it's exports away from reliance on the United States. The 
actual exports TO the U.S. will not drop, as PDVSA's fully owned CITCO 
company has oil refineries that only refine Venezuela's rather nasty 
viscous Orinoco oil.

The key to all this is capital and expertise that will flow into the 
Orinico region from China, Japan and other countries interested in 
exploiting/developing the extra-heavy Venezuelan Orinoco crude. It is 
one of the single largest fossil fuel regions in the world today. 
Venezuela needs this to keep on top of the oil game, which isn't going 
away anytime soon. By developing fully horizontal and vertical markets 
around Orinoco crude [Chemicals, machinery, engineering, distribution 
and transportation, power, refining, etc etc], Venezuela is assured 
continued development of it's fossil resources.

The problem for Venezuela in all this lies in the proposed huge 
investment of the pipeline across Columbia. Not the most stable country 
in the world and, certainly one at odds with Caracas off on for years 
now. Can reliance on this pipeline effect Venezuela's financial 
security? Who will control the pipeline and who will operate it?

Politically it also disarms imperialism's attempts to divide Latin 
America between it's puppets and those that have seriously tried to make 
the term "national sovereignty" actually mean something more than empty 
rhetoric. By bringing Columbia closer to Venezuela in the *eyes of the 
Columbian masses* helps sets up interesting scenarios for the rise of an 
anti-imperialist movement in Columbia and a pro-Bolivarian Revolution 
constituency, something that has been very, very weak.

D. Walters

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