[Marxism] Judging the success of the stimulus

[Eli Stephens <elishastephens@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

JB raises the question of four years from now (a bit prematurely, I'd say, but 
anyway...) and how Obama will be judged if (or if not) the economy rebounds. 
I've noticed something very subtle happening in recent weeks, which I wrote 
about (with links) here: 
http://lefti.blogspot.com/2009_02_01_archive.html#1268968642657997381

President Obama has repeatedly referred to his plans to "create" millions of 
jobs (the exact number has varied, and of course depended on the actual bill 
that got through Congress). Here in December, for example, before the 
Inauguration, the headlines read "Obama outlines initiative to create 2.5 
million jobs." By Jan. 10, MSNBC was headlining "Obama: Stimulus will create 
4.1 million jobs," but if you read the actual quote, it wasn't quite that; 
Obama actually said that the plan "will likely save or create three to four 
million jobs." Save or create.

And there it was again in the speech last night: "over the next two years, this 
plan will save or create 3.5 million jobs." Save or create.

Here's the thing. If employment goes up in the next two years, it will 
certainly be possible to quantify how many jobs have been created (although the 
reason will obviously be debatable). But quantifying how many jobs have been 
saved (i.e., how many jobs would have been lost had the stimulus not been 
passed) is entirely unknowable, which means that ascertaining whether 3.5 
million jobs have been "saved or created" two years from now will be an utter 
impossibility.

No one has ever accused Obama of being dumb. Not me, anyway.




Eli Stephens
 Left I on the News
 http://lefti.blogspot.com


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