[Marxism] Some Israelis hope hard-right government will break ultra-Zionist momentum

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

For one thing, they are counting on Obama to oppose Netanyahu-Liberman govt.
Differences between US and Israel are on the rise (that began when US
refused to send bunker-busters to Israel for use against Iran).  But Avnery
warns, "Obama has yet to pass a real test on any issue."
Fred Feldman

http://www.counterpunch.org/avnery02242009.html

February 24, 2009

The Great Gamble 
Coalition Theory 
By URI AVNERY 

"ACTA ALEA EST? ? the die is cast ? said Julius Caesar and crossed the River
Rubicon on his way to conquer Rome. That was the end of Roman democracy.

We don?t have a Julius Caesar. But we do have an Avigdor Liberman. When he
announced his support the other day for the setting up of a government
headed by Binyamin Netanyahu, that was the crossing of his Rubicon.

I hope that this is not the beginning of the end of Israeli democracy.

* * * 

UNTIL THE last moment, Liberman held the Israeli public in suspense. Will he
join Netanyahu? Will he join Tzipi Livni?

Those who participated in the guessing game were divided in their view of
Liberman.

Some of them said: Liberman is indeed what he pretends to be: an extreme
nationalist racist. His aim is really to turn Israel into a Jewish state
cleansed of Arabs ? Araberrein, in German. He has only contempt for
democracy, both in the country and in his own party, which consists of
yesmen and yeswomen devoid of any identity of their own. Like similar
parties in the past, it is based on a cult of (his) personality, the worship
of brute force, contempt for democracy and disdain for the judicial system.
In other countries this is called fascism. 

Others say: that is all a façade. Liberman is no Israeli Fuehrer, because he
is nothing but a cheat and a cynic. The police investigations against him
and his business dealings with Palestinians show him to be a corrupt
opportunist. He is also a friend of Tzipi. He cultivates a fascist image in
order to pave his way to power. He will sell all his slogans for a piece of
government.

The first Liberman would support the setting up of an extreme Right
government by Netanyahu. The second Liberman could support a Livni
government. For a whole week he juggled the balls. Now he has decided: he is
indeed an extreme nationalist racist. As the Americans say: if it walks like
a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck.

For appearances? sake he told the President that his proposal to entrust
Netanyahu with the setting up of a government applies only to a broad-based
coalition encompassing Likud, Kadima and his own party. But that is just a
gimmick: probably such a government will not come into being, and the next
government will be a coalition of Likud, Liberman, the disciples of Meir
Kahane and the religious parties.

* * * 

SOME ON the Left say: Excellent. The voters will get exactly what they
deserve. At long last, there will be an exclusively rightist government.

One of the proponents of this attitude is Gideon Levy, a consistent advocate
of peace, democracy and civil equality.

He and those who think like him say: Israel simply has to pass through this
phase before it can recover. The Right must get unlimited power to realize
its program, without the pretext of being hindered by leftist or centrist
members of the coalition. Let them try, in full view of the world, to pursue
a policy of war, the overthrow of Hamas in Gaza, the avoidance of any peace
negotiations, unfettered settlement, spitting in the face of world public
opinion and collision with the United States. 

In this view, such a government cannot last for long. The new American
administration of Barack Obama will not allow it. The world will boycott it.
American Jewry will be shocked. And if Netanyahu strays ? even slightly ?
from the Right and narrow path, his government will fall apart. The
Kahanists, up to then his full partners, will divorce him on the spot. After
all, the last Netanyahu government was overthrown ten years ago by the
extreme right after he sat down with Yasser Arafat and signed an agreement
that gave (pro forma) a part of Hebron to the Palestinian Authority.  

After the fall of the government, according to this prognosis, the public
will understand that there is no rightist option, that the slogans of the
Right are nothing but nonsense. Only thus will they arrive at the conclusion
that there is no alternative to the path of peace. The voters will elect a
government that will end the occupation, clear the way for a free
Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem and withdraw to the
Green Line borders (with slight, mutually acceptable, adjustments).

For the public to accept this, a shock is needed. The fall of the deep-Right
government can supply such a shock. According to a saying attributed
(mistakenly, it appears) to Lenin: The worse, the better. Or, put in another
way: it must become much worse before it can get any better.

* * *

THIS IS a seductive theory. But it is also very frightening.

How can we be sure that the Obama administration will indeed put
irresistible pressure on Netanyahu? That is possible. Let?s hope that it
happens. But it is not certain at all.

Obama has not yet passed a real test on any issue. It is already clear that
there is a marked difference between what he promised in the election
campaign and what he is doing in practice. In several matters he is
continuing the policies of George Bush with slight alterations. That was, of
course, to be expected. But Obama has not yet shown how he would act under
real pressure. When Netanyahu mobilizes the full might of the pro-Israel
lobby, will Obama surrender, like all preceding presidents?

And world public opinion ? how united will it be? How much pressure can it
exert? When Netanyahu declares that all criticism of his government is
?anti-Semitic? and that every boycott call is an echo of the Nazi slogan
?Kauft nicht bei Juden? (?Don?t buy from Jews?) ? how many of the critics
will stand up to the pressure? How much courage will Merkel, Sarkozy,
Berlusconi et al be able to muster? And on the other side: will a world-wide
boycott not intensify the paranoia in Israel and push all the Israeli public
into the arms of the extreme Right, under the time-worn slogan ?All the
World is against us??

* * *

IN THE best of circumstances, if all the pressures materialize and have a
maximum impact ? how long will it take? What disasters can such a government
bring about before the pressure starts to take effect? How many human beings
will be killed and injured in attacks and acts of revenge by both sides?
Such a government would be dominated by the settlers. How many new
settlements will spring up? How many existing settlements will be extended
at a hectic pace? And in the meantime, won?t the settlers intensify their
harassment of the Palestinian population with the aim of bringing about
ethnic cleansing?

The components of the Rightist coalition have already declared that they do
not agree to a cease-fire in Gaza because it would consolidate the rule of
Hamas there. They seek to renew the Gaza War under an even more brutal
leadership, to re-conquer the Strip and to return the settlers there.

Netanyahu?s talk about an ?economic peace? is complete nonsense, because no
economy can develop under an occupation regime and hundreds of roadblocks.
Any peace process ? real or virtual ? will grind to a halt. The result: the
Palestinian authority will collapse. Out of desperation, the West Bank
population will turn further towards Hamas, or the Fatah movement will
become Hamas 2.

Inside Israel, the government will have to confront the deepening depression
and perhaps cause economic chaos. All the sections of the government are
united in their hatred of the Supreme Court, and the crazy manipulations of
Justice Minister Daniel Friedman will give way to even crazier ones. Under
the catchy slogan of ?regime change?, targeted assaults against the
democratic system will take place. 

All these things are possible. One or two years of a Bibi-Liberman-Kahane
government can cause irreparable damage to Israel?s standing in the world,
Israeli-American relations, the judicial system, Israeli democracy, national
morale and national sanity.

* * * 

THE POSITIVE side of this situation is that the Knesset will once again
include a large opposition. Perhaps even an effective opposition.

Kadima came into being as a government party. It will not be easy for it to
adapt to the role of opposition. That will require an emotional and
intellectual transformation. For ten years I myself conducted an
uncompromising oppositional struggle in the Knesset, and I know how
difficult it is. But if Kadima manages to undergo such a transformation
successfully ? which is very doubtful ? it may become an effective
opposition. The necessity to present a clear alternative to the rightist
government may lead it to discover unsuspected strengths within itself.
Tzipi Livni?s games with the Palestinians may turn into a serious program
for a Two-State solution, a program that will be strengthened and deepened
by the daily parliamentary struggle vis-à-vis a government with an opposite
program.

Labor, too, will have to undergo a profound transformation. Ehud Barak is
certainly not the person to wage an oppositional fight ? especially as he
will not be the ?head of the opposition?, a title officially conferred by
law on the leader of the largest opposition faction. He will be second
fiddle even in opposition. Labor will have to compete, and perhaps-perhaps
this will lead to its recovery. The Bible tells us of the miracle of the dry
bones (Ezekiel 37).

That is true even more for Meretz. It will have to compete with both Kadima
and Labor to justify its place in the struggle for peace and social
recovery.

A real optimist can even hope for the narrowing of the gap between the
?Jewish Left? and the ?Arab parties?, which the Left has until now boycotted
and left out of all coalition calculations. The common struggle and the
joint votes in the Knesset may bring about a positive development there too.

And beyond the parliamentary arena, the government of the extreme Right may
change the atmosphere in the country and stimulate many well-intentioned
people to leave the security of their ivory towers and start a process of
intellectual rejuvenation in the circles from which a new, open and
different Left must spring.

* * * 

ALL THESE are theoretical possibilities. What will happen in reality? What
will be the consequences of a ?pure? rightist regime, if Tzipi Livni
maintains her determination not to join a Netanyahu government? Will Israel
set off down a suicidal road from which there is no return, or will this be
a passing phase before the wake-up call?

It is a great gamble, and like every gamble, it arouses both fear and hope.

Uri Avnery is an Israeli writer and peace activist with Gush Shalom. He is a
contributor to CounterPunch's book The Politics of Anti-Semitism. 




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