[Marxism] Krugman: This is really, really bad

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

Paul Krugman - New York Times Blog
February 7, 2009, 5:36 pm
What the centrists have wrought

I’m still working on the numbers, but I’ve gotten a fair number of 
requests for comment on the Senate version of the stimulus.

The short answer: to appease the centrists, a plan that was already too 
small and too focused on ineffective tax cuts has been made 
significantly smaller, and even more focused on tax cuts.

According to the CBO’s estimates, we’re facing an output shortfall of 
almost 14% of GDP over the next two years, or around $2 trillion. 
Others, such as Goldman Sachs, are even more pessimistic. So the 
original $800 billion plan was too small, especially because a 
substantial share consisted of tax cuts that probably would have added 
little to demand. The plan should have been at least 50% larger.

Now the centrists have shaved off $86 billion in spending — much of it 
among the most effective and most needed parts of the plan. In 
particular, aid to state governments, which are in desperate straits, is 
both fast — because it prevents spending cuts rather than having to 
start up new projects — and effective, because it would in fact be 
spent; plus state and local governments are cutting back on essentials, 
so the social value of this spending would be high. But in the name of 
mighty centrism, $40 billion of that aid has been cut out.

My first cut says that the changes to the Senate bill will ensure that 
we have at least 600,000 fewer Americans employed over the next two years.

The real question now is whether Obama will be able to come back for 
more once it’s clear that the plan is way inadequate. My guess is no. 
This is really, really bad.

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