[Marxism] Geopolitics 101

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

NY Times, February 6, 2009
Analysis: US Base Falls Victim to Kyrgyz Crisis
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 11:21 a.m. ET

Kyrgyzstan may have felt it had no choice in expelling the U.S. from a 
base vital to the war in Afghanistan.

Months of crippling electricity shortages, soaring food prices and 
rampant unemployment have caused misery for much of the population. A 
reinvigorated opposition has threatened to stage nationwide protests 
against President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

Against that backdrop, Russia pledged to help raise $1.7 billion for a 
much-needed hydropower plant and issue a $300 million low-interest 
40-year loan repayable over a 40-year period. Moscow also agreed to give 
$150 million in aid and cancel an outstanding $190 million debt.

But Russia has also made clear its objections to the Manas air base, 
saying it was only supposed to remain for two years after the U.S. 
invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.

Moscow has denied financial support was given in exchange for Kyrgyzstan 
evicting the U.S. air base. But since the unveiling of the assistance 
package and the announcement of the base closure came within minutes of 
each other, there is little doubt among most observers that the two 
issues were linked.

Now, flush with Russian cash, Bakiyev's government can hope to begin 
clawing back some public approval.

''Giving $2 billion is an act of political support for Bakiyev that will 
help him soften the impact of the economic crisis,'' said Kyrgyz 
political analyst Mars Sariyev.

Kyrgyzstan, a largely Muslim, mountainous former Soviet nation on 
China's western frontier, has long been viewed as a relative oasis of 
democracy in a region that boasts some of the world's most repressive 
dictatorships. But observers believe Bakiyev, who himself came to power 
in 2005 as the result of a nominally pro-Western popular uprising, is on 
a drive to strengthen his grip on power.

New York-based democracy watchdog organization Freedom House noted in 
its latest country report on Kyrgyzstan that democratic rights and press 
freedoms have steadily worsened over the last year.

In recent weeks, several prominent opposition activist have been 
subjected to criminal investigations that their supporters say are 
politically motivated. In the most high-profile case, police last month 
opened a criminal investigation against the main opposition leader, 
Omurbek Tekebayev, over an alleged weapons offense.

In December, Tekebayev and several other opposition representatives 
traveled to the United States, where they held meetings with U.S. 
officials -- a visit viewed with suspicion by the Kyrgyz authorities.

While Russia's financial assistance will help Bakiyev prop up his own 
domestic appeal, the announcement to close the Manas air base seems 
certain to create irritation in the West, with which Kyrgyzstan has 
enjoyed healthy relations since gaining independence in 1991.

Many suspected that Kyrgyzstan's posture on Manas may have been a ploy 
to pressure the United States into paying more rent. Gen. David 
Petraeus, commander of U.S. operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, said 
last month that the U.S. pumps $150 million annually into Kyrgyzstan's 
economy, including $63 million in rent for Manas.

But Kyrgyz officials insisted Friday that the government will not 
reverse its decision, dashing U.S. hopes of a last-minute reprieve.

----------

Peter Leonard is AP's Central Asia correspondent based in Almaty, 
Kazakhstan.

----------

Associated Press writer Leila Saralayeva in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, 
contributed to this report.

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