[Marxism] From Doug Henwood

["Charles Brown" <charlesb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I see that Charles Brown says that I wasn't talking recession back in
January 2008. No, but I did start talking that way when the January
employment report was released in early February. I was pre-empted the
Thursday after that release, but here's what I said in my March 13
commentary, after the Feb employment numbers were released:

"Evidence continues to mount that the U.S. economy is now in
recession.
Last Friday, we learned that 63,000 jobs disappeared in February, the
second consecutive monthly loss. Januaryâs decline was revised down;
it
now appears as a loss of 22,000 jobs. I should emphasize that these
are
preliminary estimates that will be revised several times. Most of the
time, the monthly numbers are pretty close to reality, but at turning
points, they can be off. In recessions, the labor statisticians often
underestimate job losses; in recoveries, they often underestimate
gains.
But two consecutive minus signs in the early estimates are very
unusual
outside recessions or their immediate aftermaths. So given that the 
losses could be worse than reported, itâs looking more and more like
the 
job market is really contracting."

Almost every commentary after 
that says that the U.S. was already in
recession.

^^^
CB: Well, I'm glad to hear that.
My mistake.  From Doug's posts
on PEN-L where he always discouraged
talk of recession, I had the
 wrong impression






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