[Marxism] What next for Gaza?

["Gary MacLennan" <gary.maclennan1@xxxxxxxxx>]

I have done the full round up of all the available media sources to me. From
 <debka.com> to the <palestinianpundit.blogspot.com>.  My impression at this
stage is that in political and strategic terms this war has been a disaster
for Israel.  Here it is significant that the pro-Israel demonstrations where
they have taken place have looked smaller than the pro-Palestinian ones.

The crucial battlegrounds of Europe and the Islamic world are lost to USrael
as the pundit puts it. Even here in Apathy Land (Australia to you) the
organized left has been able to make solid links around this issue with many
in the Islamic community. I suspect also that the Israelis have been caught
by surprise and frightened by the demonstrations against them in the US.

On the military side there is much threatening and posturing by the IDF but
their basic stance is that of almost total reliance on ceaseless bombardment
from land air and sea.  Debka.com has accused Hamas militants of being
scared;  that is they have not come out where the oh so brave Israeli Air
Force can slaughter them. But of course the reality is that the IDF is
reluctant to move forward and engage the freedom fighters on the ground.

So it looks almost like a military stalemate.  But that in itself has
serious consequences for the Israelis who are always close to the situation
that their first defeat will be the end of them. Indeed the shadow of the
Lebanon war of 2006 looms very large over this whole exercise.  Presumably
the Israeli high command would like very much to wipe the slate clean here.
However they may be in the situation described by Wallerstein when talking
of the USA.  He claimed that the Americans have a sophisticated war machine
but no army - not enough soldiers and this limits what they can do.

The Israelis of course can mobilise thru conscription - a step no American
Govt dare take at present. But the reason why the American Govt cannot
conscript is that there are risks attached to putting conscripts in
danger. And Israel is not immune from these dangers.  I will never forget
the interview with the Israeli conscript in 2006 who came out of Lebanon and
said in astonishment "They are shooting back at us!"

My conclusion then is that the tactical and logistical superiority that
Israel enjoys has not enabled them to escape a strategic disaster.  The
deterrence value of their army has been called into question.  As the
Angry Arab has pointed out Gaza has already held out longer than the
combined armies of Syria, Jordan and Egypt in 1967. This means that instead
of making up for the disasters of 2006, Israel may actually be in a re-run
of that catastrophe.

At present their solution has been to resort to an ever more savage
bombardment. But the political consequences of that have as I have said been
disastrous for Israel and there is always the possibility that one of their
Arab allies could be swept aside by a popular revolt.  It was then easy for
Israel to go into Gaza, but it seems like it is very difficult for them to
get out.

regards

Gary
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