Re: [Marxism] Hamas is hoping for an IDF ground operation

[Jeff <meisner@xxxxxxxxx>]

I tend to disagree with you:

At 06:07 30/12/08 -0800, Eli wrote:
>While the article does attempt to back up this headline.....
>>
> NO! What Hamas "is hoping for" is for ISRAEL 
>TO STOP THEIR OPPRESSION 
Well of course. That's all they ever wanted. But now they're in a war in 
which they are facing an air force without their own air force or any 
ability to retaliate (except for toy rockets which have mainly symbolic 
value). If Israel were to send in ground forces the equation would change 
and the Palestinians would be able to shoot back.

In that case, I'd expect that there would be 10 Palestinians killed for 
every Israeli casualty. But currently the (sorry...) "kill ratio" is 100:1, 
so from their strategic standpoint that would be a great improvement. Since 
Israel obviously considers the life of an Israeli worth more than 100 times 
that of a Palestinian, they would suffer, particularly in the eyes of the 
Israeli public who likewise supported the 2006 Lebanon war, in the beginning.

However I am not as optimistic about the outcome as in the case of Lebanon. 
Hamas does not have the military sophistication of Hizbollah, and more 
importantly, they are very poorly supplied. In particular, with Gaza 
essentially surrounded and blockaded by Israel, they can attempt to "starve 
out" the Gazans (as they have been doing anyway!) and that might be 
successful if there is not a sufficient international response.

One further evidence in favor of this thesis (that Hamas would gain from a 
ground invasion), I believe, can be found in the high-profile announcement 
of the reserve call-ups and massing at the border. They could have done that 
all silently, but by making it well known, they must be hoping to scare 
Hamas into a cease-fire (on Israeli terms). I'm not saying they have no 
intention of using those troops in a contingency, but I think they 
understand the implication of Israelis dying in larger numbers, as they 
learned in Lebanon.

- Jeff




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>
>Eli Stephens
> Left I on the News
> http://lefti.blogspot.com
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