Re: [Marxism] On Obama's chances to win

[Eli Stephens <elishastephens@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

JB:
The RV figures show Obama with an 8-point lead.
The LV (Expanded) shows him with a 6-point lead.
The LV (Traditional) shows him with only a 2 point lead.

JB "the electoral cretin" should know better than anyone that national polls 
mean *absolutely nothing* since the election occurs on a state-by-state basis. 
With Obama ahead or close in states that George Bush won by 15 or 20%, and 
McCain (who ought to know better than JB) pulling his campaign and advertising 
completely out of some "battleground" states, it seems *very* unlikely that 
anything, even election malfeasance or a last minute bombing of Iran, is going 
to pull this one out for McCain and the Repulsivcans.

Yesterday, Obama spoke to rallies of 100,000 in St. Louis (I'm sure if it was 
an 
antiwar rally they would have said 10,000, but anyway that's the figure that's 
given in the press) and 75,000 in Kansas City on the same day. Meanwhile McCain 
was speaking to a crowd of 5,000 in Republican-friendly North Carolina. Obama 
not only has people telling pollsters they're for him, but he has enthusiasm 
for 
his campaign unmatched in recent memory, stemming partially from his personal 
skills (oratory and charisma) and partially from the incredible revulsion to 
the 
last eight years of Bush/Cheney. In some states, early voting has started, and 
lines of 30 minutes to an hour are being reported, as people turn out in droves 
to vote for Obama.

Obama is not going to lose this election. Period.

Indeed, as much as I hate to say this, the chances are *much* higher that he 
will be assassinated between now and Nov. 4 than that he will lose the 
election. 
That, given the incipient fascism and outright hatred in evidence at McCain and 
Palin rallies, combined with Obama's high profile in public places, cannot at 
all be ruled out.

Although even in that case, Obama will *still* win the election, even though it 
will be Biden who takes office.


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