[Marxism] On Obama's chances to win

["Joaquin Bustelo" <jbustelo@xxxxxxxxx>]

The Gallup poll has a very interesting statistical exercise underway, in
that they are publishing THREE different "tracking poll" results: one based
on Registered Voters, one based on Likely Voters as traditionally calculated
(which takes into account what people say about having voted in the past,
and the demographics of past electorates) and one based on Expanded Likely
Voters which is based on what people say about their current intentions to
actually vote and how strong their support for a candidate is. 

The RV figures show Obama with an 8-point lead.
The LV (Expanded) shows him with a 6-point lead.
The LV (Traditional) shows him with only a 2 point lead.

This is a large survey of 1,000 people a day, with each day's numbers based
on the previous three days of polling. These numbers have been basically
stable for several days. 

This tracks pretty well with my own "guesstimate" of what might happen if
Obama is unable to significantly change the face of the electorate, that as
things stand now, he will probably win, but not by that much. Before the
financial crisis I'd been saying that if Obama didn't change WHO voted, he
would lose, that's no longer the case, but with a traditional turnout,
McCain winning is far from excluded. 

Joaquin


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