[Marxism] Confusion about Israeli leak on Bush "plan" to attack Iran

[dave.walters@xxxxxxxxxxx]

I wanted to respond to Fred's comments about an impending, 
definite/maybe/want's 
to attack on Iran by the US.

We all know the US wants regime change there. But like with Iraq and Hussein, 
they 
would also accept, I believe, some sort of reprochment with the Iranian gov't 
like they 
had for a good period of time with the US Afghanistan where the Iranians went 
out of 
their way to support, encourade and otherwise facilitate the US takeover of 
that country. 
Now, clearly, the US policy has *almost* reached a policy of no return: attack 
Iran or 
else! They haven't done so already for several reasons.

The biggest reason is that few in the US Dept. of Defense really want to do so. 
Not 
even a little. Because any attack would, without a doubt, unlease a huge 
counter-attack 
not just by Iran but by Iranian supporters, often Shia Islamic activsts 
throughout the 
Gulf and the Middle-East...and the US military would bear the brunt of such an 
attack. 
So clearly, convincing the Joint Chiefs of Staff is not a push-over for Bush 
even if he 
has the final say on the matter and they all work for him.

The secondary reason is that what *exactly* would be attacked. We know the US 
can't invade. They can damage and destroy Iran's already mismanaged and corrupt 
economy. Which, of course, would only inflame Iranian nationalism more, etc 
etc. 
While Bush might like to leave such a mess on the door step of the next US 
President, 
regardless of who that might be, the ruling class itself is not so sanguine 
about such a 
prospect. Think: "price of oil". So...

Thirdly, what they would have to attack is the almost completed reactor being 
built 
with Russian engineering staff. OK, so, they would do what the Israelis did in 
it's 
attack on Iraq's reactor: hit on a day when the Russians are all off from work. 
The 
only problem with this scenerio is that the reactor is being fueled. Either 
inside or 
outside the reactor are probably about 150 tons of slighly-enriched uranium 
fuel 
rods ready to go critical inside the reactor. So...if they hit this...then 
that...goes all 
over the place an irradiates a small but important part of Iran with 
radioactive and 
heavy metal particulate. Personally I don't believe it would do that much human 
damage, but it doesn't matter: the US would of hit a nuclear fuel pile. 
Probably not 
good for the US politically. 

I think if they do hit Iran, they will hit *only* what they suspect are 
enrichment
facilities and leave that reactor alone (which technically the US does NOT 
oppose
being built).

So, I said all that to say this: trying to predict what the US is going to do 
is not as 
simple as  this IDF "leak" states. You just can't "hit Iran. It doesn't work 
like that. 
But it's still scary.

David
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