[Marxism] Maoists win stunning victory in Nepal elections

["Ruthless Critic of All that Exists" <ok.president+marxml@xxxxxxxxx>]

The Telegraph
Calcutta, India

April 13 , 2008

RED RULES KINGDOM

Surge catches Delhi napping

by Sankarshan Thakur


Kathmandu, April 12: The red flag is flying high
over Kathmandu. Prachanda's Maoists have stolen a
lightning march over rivals in Nepal, sparing
none save the Nepali Congress, the nation's
oldest political party.

The Maoists' stunning electoral surge, only two
years after they came overground, left the
royalists dumbstruck and panicking, the
mainstream communists of the UML gasping for
breath, and the Indian mission in the throes of
anxiety.

Pursued and persecuted till only the other day,
the Maoist cadres took Kathmandu in a euphoric
octopus-like embrace this afternoon. They jammed
the streets, unfurled long and loud processions
and shook this somnolent capital with the vigour
of their victory.

The town centre was a throbbing red tableau -
thousands of flags and banners fluttering and
seamlessly merging on ground, the air an eruption
of vermilion. And floating above them, the
ringing cry that is beginning to unsettle the
insulated Kathmandu elite: Lal salaam! Lal salaam!

As trends firmed up towards the evening, it
became apparent the Maoists were headed to become
the largest single group in the 240 seats that
are being decided on a first-past-the-post basis.
Nearly 60 per cent of the 601 seats in the
Constituent Assembly will be decided by a complex
proportional representation vote, whose results
will take a couple of weeks to come. But if
current results are any indication, the Maoists
should dominate the proportional vote as well.

Taken by surprise and lost on explanations, a
senior Indian diplomat said: "We obviously missed
something, this is astonishing and calls for
fresh assessments."

Never enamoured of the Maoists, even though
Prachanda and his second-in-command Baburam
Bhattarai spent long years underground in India,
New Delhi had been backing the more
middle-of-the-road parties like the Nepali
Congress and the UML to win the bulk of the seats.

Prachanda, on his part, has often bracketed India
with the US as an unfriendly power. Although he
sounded conciliatory in the flush of victory -
"We would like to assure India that we would like
to work closely with them" - New Delhi may now
have to scramble to correct what has turned out
to be a huge miscalculation.

Nepal itself now seems set on the road to
becoming a republic; the future of King Gyanendra
and the Shah monarchy hangs by a thread straining
under the weight of the pro-Maoist mandate.

But sources close to the palace hinted to The
Telegraph that the king was still trying to
retain relevance in the power set-up. "Nothing
can be ruled out. Don't forget, he has his
linkages with the Maoists, they were talking
directly at one time," a source said, indicating
that he could leverage the Nepali Army to strike
a deal. The Maoists want their PLA integrated
into the national army and there could be room
for manoeuvre here.

Most analysts believe, though, that despite
Gyanendra's desperate feelers to the new victors,
it is too late in the day for such a deal,
especially in the face of such a pro-republican
mandate.

Narainman Bijukchhe of the Left-wing Nepal
Workers' and Peasants' Party (NWPP), who won in
neighbouring Bhaktapur yet again, underlined the
message of the vote thus: "The people want
fundamental changes, the message from them is
that a republic headed by a President must be
created now."

Prachanda, who took the Pharping seat near
Kathmandu by a mile, appeared briefly to
acknowledge a jubilant horde at the Birendra
International Convention Centre. "This is a
historic day for us and for Nepal," he said.
"This is a mandate for an inclusive federal
democratic republic."

Profusely garlanded, his face barely visible
behind the girdle of marigolds, Prachanda reached
out to the entire political class to unitedly
work for a "progressive agenda".

Most top Maoist leaders, including Bhattarai,
military commander Rambahadur Thapa "Badal",
Krishna Bahadur Mahara, Pampha Bhusal and Hisila
Yami, have won their seats. Many others are set
for victory.

Madhav Nepal, who was projecting himself as the
next Prime Minister, lost his Kathmandu seat and
resigned as UML general secretary accepting
responsibility of the UML rout.

Nepal isn't the only major UML casualty, most of
his senior colleagues have been drubbed, the
Left-wing space voraciously eaten up by the
Maoists.

The Koirala clan, too, has been wiped out in a
verdict that has left the Nepali Congress
reduced, though not devastated. Acting party
president Sushil Koirala was defeated in
Nepalgunj and resigned his post. Sujata Koirala,
daughter of Prime Minister G.P. Koirala and
another claimant for future prime ministership,
was humbled in the family's pocket borough near
Biratnagar. Cousin Shekhar Koirala fared no
better, losing in Morang.

The Koiralas' Terai home ground was run over by
recently sprung Madhesi rights groups like the
Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF). Results from
Madhes are slow to come, but the trends suggest
local parties have benefited at the expense of
the Nepali Congress and the Maoists have made
deep inroads into the Terai's pahadi pockets.

All eyes are now on whether the balance of power
in Kathmandu will swing drastically towards the
Maoists. Several key interests - the Kathmandu
elite, the US and India, the army and the Nepali
Congress - will probably now seek to politically
contain the Maoists.

But with the reds leading the run, one analyst
did not even rule out the possibility of
Prachanda using the muscle of the mandate to seek
Prime Minister G.P. Koirala's job which, at the
moment, combines the roles of head of state and
head of government.

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