Re: [Marxism] Surge in food prices could lead to increased unrest

[Eli Stephens <elishastephens@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

 From the Guardian:
  http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/06/food.foodanddrink


Food riots fear after rice price hits a high

Shortages of the staple crop of half the world's people could bring unrest 
across Asia and Africa, reports foreign affairs editor Peter Beaumont

This article appeared in the Observer on Sunday April 06 2008 on p33 of the 
World news section. It was last updated at 00:03 on April 06 2008.

A global rice shortage that has seen prices of one of the world's most 
important 
staple foods increase by 50 per cent in the past two weeks alone is triggering 
an international crisis, with countries banning export and threatening serious 
punishment for hoarders.

With rice stocks at their lowest for 30 years, prices of the grain rose more 
than 10 per cent on Friday to record highs and are expected to soar further in 
the coming months. Already China, India, Egypt, Vietnam and Cambodia have 
imposed tariffs or export bans, as it has become clear that world production of 
rice this year will decline in real terms by 3.5 per cent. The impact will be 
felt most keenly by the world's poorest populations, who have become 
increasingly dependent on the crop as the prices of other grains have become 
too 
costly.

Rice is the staple food for more than half the world's population. This is the 
second year running in which production - which increased in real terms last 
year - has failed to keep pace with population growth. The harvest has also 
been 
hit by drought, particularly in China and Australia, forcing producers to hoard 
their crops to satisfy local markets.

The increase in rice prices - which some believe could increase by a further 40 
per cent in coming months - has matched sharp inflation in other key food 
products. But with rice relied on by some eight billion people, the impact of a 
prolonged rice crisis for the world's poor - a large part of whose available 
income is spent on food - threatens to be devastating.

The consequences are visible across the globe. In Bangladesh, government-run 
outlets that sell subsidised rice have been besieged by queues comprised 
largely 
of the country's middle classes, who will queue for hours to purchase five 
kilograms of rice sold at 30 per cent cheaper than on the open market.

In Thailand yesterday - where the price for lower-quality rice alone has risen 
by between $70 and $100 per tonne in the past week alone - Deputy Prime 
Minister 
Mingkwan Sangsuwan convened a meeting of key officials and traders yesterday to 
discuss imposing minimum export prices to control export volumes and measures 
to 
punish hoarders. The meeting follows moves by some larger supermarkets in 
Thailand to limit purchases of rice by customers.

In the Philippines, where the National Bureau of Investigation has been called 
in to raid traders suspected of hoarding rice to push up the prices, activists 
have warned of the risk of food riots.

Fear is so deep that the country's agricultural secretary, Arthur Yap, this 
month asked fast-food restaurants including McDonald's and KFC - which 
generally 
supply a cup of rice with their meals in Asian branches - to halve the amount 
of 
rice supplied, so that none would be wasted. In addition, traders who try to 
stockpile rice have been warned that they face a charge of 'economic sabotage', 
which in the Philippines carries a life sentence.

The shortage has afflicted India, too: on Monday, the government banned the 
export of non-basmati rice and also raised the price of basmati rice that can 
be 
exported.

And although China has said it is secure in its supplies of rice, the fact that 
the government has offered to pay farmers more to produce more rice and wheat 
suggests otherwise.

The sharp rise in rice prices has been driven by many factors, not least by a 
race between African and South-east Asian countries to secure sufficient stocks 
to head off the risk of food riots and social unrest.

Fears over the potential impact of the rice crisis has been heightened by 
estimates by both the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation - which has 
predicted 
the 3.5 per cent shortfall - and comments from the World Bank president, Robert 
Zoellick, on the organisation's website, estimating that '33 countries around 
the world face potential social unrest because of the acute hike in food and 
energy prices'.

According to the World Bank's figures, the real price of rice rose to a 19-year 
high last month, while the real price of wheat has hit a 28-year high.

Analysts have cited many factors for the rises, including rising fuel and 
fertiliser expenses, as well as climate change. But while drought is one 
factor, 
another is the switch from food to biofuel production in large areas of the 
world, in particular to fulfil the US energy demands. A continuing change in 
the 
global diet is also putting a further squeeze on rice. In China, for example, 
100 million rural migrants to the country's big cities have switched from a 
staple of wheat to rice as they have become wealthier.

Rapid recent price increases are also likely to have a dangerous secondary 
effect of stoking further inflation in emerging countries, which are already 
suffering from record oil prices and surging agricultural commodity prices.

The depth of the crisis for the poorest was underlined in stark terms by the 
World Bank's managing director at a meeting of finance ministers from the Asian 
block. Juan José Daboub said governments needed to take steps to protect the 
poor and also ensure that long-term solutions were found to relieve shortages. 
'In virtually every East Asian country, high food prices are raising headline 
inflation and contributing to a significant decline in the real income of the 
poor, most of whom spend a big chunk of their income on food,' he said last 
week.


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