[Marxism] In Solidarity with the People of Tibet (or why I oppose an international solidarity movement)

["Fei Jiao" <feijiao@xxxxxxxxx>]

Fred Feldmam :
"I am sure a sizable number of Chinese are eager to go to Tibet to find
economic security or make their fortunes.  But Thomas should inform me since
I may behind the curve on Chinese law. Is China now a country where people
move freely from province to province in search of jobs or other
opportunities? Are there no longer laws that restrict this? Does the
government claim no power to control this as it used to?"

Fei Jiao:
I think in china whether there is a law is one question, how the law is
enforced is another. Yes, there is a law prohibits free internal migration
in China. But since mid-1980, it is harder and harder for the government to
enforce the law. That is why there are now about 0.2 billion (latest
unofficial figure) worker peasants in China constantly moving almost freely
among the cities, from south to north but mainly form west to east. Once
someone finds a job or open a business anywhere in China, including in the
large or small cities, there is not much difficulty (esp. considering the
wide-spread corruption in government officers) for him to get a temporary
residency certificate which allows him to rent legally a place to stay and
live and have basic social benefits and welfare ( not including for his
family nor education for his children).

From the figures I had collected previously, there is no substantial
increment of Han population in Tibet and Lhasa in recent years. The reason,
just as Saul Thomas had explained before, is the harsh weather and the
average over 3,500m altitude of the Tibetna Plateau. These are reports and
researches conducting in recent years that it would shorten substantially
the life span of non-Tibetan immigrants if they live in Tibet long enough.

However there are a huge increase of tourists into Tibet ever since the
opening of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway in June 2006, because the fact that the
opening of railway cut the cost of transportation of goods and human to
Tibet by 75%. The figure boomed from 2.29 million in 2006 (itself is already
a % increase from 2005) to 4 million to 2007, that is a 75% percent
increase. More than 90% of tourists were from other chinese provinces. This
is a big argument presented by Dalai Lama and his exiled government for
their claims of a "cultural genocide" by the chinese government.

The following figure from the Internet may be useful to clarify the issues:

A) from The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific (UESCAP) (
http://www.unescap.org/esid/psis/population/database/chinadata/tibet.htm)

1. Size and Distribution
At the end of 2000, the total population in Tibet was 2.62 million....The
population of the Tibetan nationality accounts for over 90% of the
population, but that of the Han nationality and other ethnic groups is very
small. Affected by nature, geographic conditions and climate, 80% of the
population in Tibet is distributed mainly over the valley along the middle
reaches of the Brahmaputra River valley and the deep valleys along three
rivers (Lantsang River, Lujang River and Yangtse River) which are located in
the eastern part of Tibet (and where Lhasa located)......

2. Population History
From 1952, Tibet's population history can be classified into four periods as
follows:

The first period, 1952 - 1958 : was characterized by high mortality and low
fertility. The total number of the population in Tibet was slightly
increased in this period.

The second period, 1959 - 1969 : may be defined as the relatively high
growth period. The population increased to 1.4805 million in 1969, i.e.
0.2743 million more than that in 1959.

The third period  1970 - 1985 : was a period of rapid increase in population
growth. The crude birth rate (CBR) fluctuated at 25 per 1,000, and the
natural growth rate (NGR) continued at 18 per 1,000. The population
increased to 1.9948 million in 1985.

In the present period, 1986 to now : population growth and CBRs and NGRs
dropped a little, but they are still higher in China. In 2000, the CBR was
17.60 per 1,000 and the NGR was 11.00 per 1,000.

Population Structure by Sex and Age
The age composition in Tibet can be described as the Expansive Pattern with
large number of people in the young ages: in 2000, 0.82 million were aged 0
- 14, about 31.2% of the total. The number of people aged 15 - 64 was
1.68million, about
64.3%. The elderly 65 years old and above numbered 0.12 million, accounting
for 4.5% of the total population. The total dependency ratio was 55.95%,
with the youth dependency ratio being 48.81% and the elderly dependency
ratio 7.14%.

Fertility Level and Changes
From 1951, the fertility level in Tibet changed significantly, but still the
fertility rates were high. Since the middle of the 1980s, the fertility
level has tended to drop. In 2000, the CBR was 17.60 per 1,000, and the NGR
was 11.00 per 1,000. Based on mid-term and long-term population projections
by region and by parity fertility levels, it is estimated that the total
population of Tibet would be increasing continuously for a relatively long
time (several decades), and the yearly increments would tend to rise.

B) Population in Tibet ( Year 2000 the 5th National Census of China, data
extracted by http://big5.china.com.cn/chinese/zhuanti/xz05/1129077.htm)

Tibet : 261.63 m人（including migrants）
with
Tibetan native 241.11m (92.2%)
Han :- 150.53 thousands (5.9%)
others :- 40.99 thousands (1.9%)

Comparative to the Year 1990 4th National Census, native Tibetan population
increases 310.44 thousands (15%).

C) Population of Tibet (Wikipedia chinese version -
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E6%8B%89%E8%90%A8&variant=zh-tw )
:
2.63m with native Tibetans 2.43m (94%) and Han 0.16m (16.43%).

D) Population of Lhasa (2000 census; from wikipedia chinese:-
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E6%8B%89%E8%90%A8&variant=zh-tw#.E4.BA.BA.E5.8F.A3
)

                      Total             Tibetan
Han              others
----------------------------------   -----------------------
----------------------   -------------------
Lhasa city     474,499     387,124 (81.6%)  80,584 (17.0%)   6,791 (1.4%)
City Central   223,001     140,387 (63.0%)  76,581 (34.3%)   6,033 (2.7%)

According to a tourist web site (which likely reflects latest reports by the
chinese government or newspapers), the latest population in Lhasa is about
400,000. About 140,000 live in the city central area, where the famous
Potala Palace locates and most Han live, are Tibetan native and taking about
87% of population in that part of the city. If these figures are accurate,
it seems the number and structure of the population in Lhasa does change
much since 2000.

Fei Jiao
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