[Marxism] The stakes in Tibet

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

(From the article: "Tibet is the source and store of much of China's 
fresh water.")

The Straits Times (Singapore), March 21, 2008 Friday
China, not Tibet, comes first for Asian states
by Michael Richardson

THE recent anti-Chinese protests in Tibet and several surrounding 
provinces in China have been watched with concern by governments in 
South and South-east Asia, especially India. They have called for 
restraint on both sides of the dispute while reassuring Beijing they 
will not support any call to boycott or disrupt the summer Olympic Games 
that China will host soon.

The neighbours are edgy. Unlike faraway Europe and the United States, 
their priority in Tibet is stability, not human rights. China's rapid 
rise as an economic giant is having mainly beneficial effects in South 
and South-east Asia. Trade with China has promoted growth in the region 
while Western demand is slowing as the US economy slumps and the credit 
crisis saps confidence.

However, sustained growth enables China to modernise its armed forces as 
well as its economy. Earlier this month, Beijing announced it will raise 
military spending by nearly 18 per cent this year, to $59US billion 
($82S billion), marking the 20th consecutive year that its defence 
budget has increased by double digits.

India, in particular, does not want to see China given an internal 
security pretext to move more troops or paramilitary forces into the 
Tibet Autonomous Region. Since July 2006, the region has been linked to 
the rest of China by a new railway that enables reinforcements to be 
sent by rail as well as road to Lhasa and other areas close to the 
disputed border with India.

China and India fought a border war in 1962 and Beijing still claims 
90,000 sq km of land in the eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, 
saying that it is part of Tibet. In response, India is building new 
roads to the border and adding to its military presence in the state. 
India also claims that China is occupying 38,000 sq km of its territory 
in Kashmir, illegally ceded by Pakistan.

The Dalai Lama, Tibet's spiritual leader, fled to India with an 
estimated 80,000 followers in 1959. Since then New Delhi has had to 
juggle its relations with China with its decision to allow the Tibetan 
god-king and his government-in-exile to base themselves at Dharamsala in 
northwest India, not far from Tibet.

In the recent unrest, New Delhi has been careful not to rile China. It 
prevented Tibetan protesters from marching into Tibet. China's Premier 
Wen Jiabao said on Tuesday that he appreciated the steps taken by India 
to limit the activities of the 'Dalai clique', which Beijing claims is 
seeking Tibet's independence.

 From China's perspective, national unity is challenged by separatists 
in Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang, another nominally autonomous region north 
of Tibet. Indigenous groups in both regions chafe under Chinese rule and 
resent the large-scale settlement of Han Chinese in these areas.

Both regions are strategically vital to China. Xinjiang is a treasure 
trove of oil, gas and minerals. It is also China's gateway to Pakistan 
and to energy-rich Central Asia.

Chinese government geologists reported last year that they had found 
huge deposits of copper, lead, zinc and iron ore in Tibet - minerals 
that China must now import on a large scale. In addition, Tibet is the 
source and store of much of China's fresh water. This makes China the 
dominant headwater power in Eurasia, giving it control over the upper 
reaches of some of the great rivers that flow into South and South-east 
Asia. The Brahmaputra, Mekong and Salween rivers all start in the 
glaciers and snow-fed highlands on the 'roof of the world', the 
Qinghai-Tibetan plateau.

China, short of both electricity and water, is in the midst of a massive 
dam-building programme. Hydropower generators on rivers in China 
currently provide about 100 million kW of electricity, about 23 per cent 
of total capacity. Beijing has said it plans to triple hydropower supply 
by 2020. This would involve building a series of huge dams on Chinese 
sections of the Mekong and Salween rivers that downstream countries in 
South-east Asia fear will affect the amount and quality of water they 
receive.

This is an aspect of growing Chinese influence on nearby nations that is 
frequently overlooked and therefore underestimated. It will be an 
underlying concern for downstream states when leaders of the six Mekong 
countries - China, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam - meet 
in Vientiane at the end of this month to review progress in improving 
river basin management and integrating their economies.

Given China's growing clout, they are unlikely to make much of a fuss.

The writer is a security specialist at the Institute of Southeast Asian 
Studies.

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