[Marxism] Growing Arab-Kurd divide in Iraq

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

NY Times, February 1, 2008
Kurds’ Power Wanes as Arab Anger Rises
By ALISSA J. RUBIN

BAGHDAD — As a minority group in Iraq, the Kurds have enjoyed 
disproportionate influence in the country’s politics since the ouster of 
Saddam Hussein in 2003. But now their leverage appears to be declining 
as tensions rise with Iraqi Arabs, raising the specter of another 
fissure alongside the sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shiites.

The Kurds, who are mostly Sunni but not Arab, have steadfastly backed 
the government, most recently helping to keep it afloat when Prime 
Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki lacked support from much of Parliament.

With their political acumen, close ties to the Americans and technical 
competence at running government agencies, the Kurds cemented a position 
of enormous strength. This allowed them to all but dictate terms in 
Iraq’s Constitution that gave them considerable regional autonomy and 
some significant rights in oil development.

But now the Kurds are pursuing policies that are antagonizing the other 
factions. The Kurds’ efforts to seize control of the oil-rich city of 
Kirkuk and to gain a more advantageous division of national revenues are 
uniting most Sunnis and many Shiites with Mr. Maliki’s government in 
opposition to the Kurdish demands.

For the United States, the diminution in Kurdish power is part of a 
larger problem of political divisiveness that has plagued its efforts to 
build a functioning government in Iraq. While several political parties 
can come together to address a particular issue, none can seem to form 
the lasting allegiances needed for actual governance.

The Kurds, with their pro-American outlook, were a natural ally. But now 
the Americans are increasingly placed in the uncomfortable position of 
choosing between the Kurds, whom they have long supported and protected, 
and the Iraqi Arabs, whose government the Americans helped create.

One major Shiite group, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, has not 
publicly taken sides, but powerful people within the party have been 
openly critical of the Kurds. Others expressing frustration are leading 
members of Parliament and Hussain al-Shahristani, the oil minister and a 
prominent Shiite politician, who calls Kurdish oil contracts with 
foreign companies illegal.

Humam Hamoudi, a leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, said, 
“They are no longer the egg in the balance,” using an Arabic proverb 
that refers to the item that tips the scale. Mr. Hamoudi added, “The 
Kurds are not so powerful.”

Independent analysts largely back that assertion. “There’s a strong 
feeling that the Kurds have overreached,” said Joost Hiltermann, a 
senior analyst for the Middle East at the International Crisis Group who 
is based in Istanbul.

“The Kurds had their eye on independence in the long term, and they 
wanted to use the current window to increase the territory they hold and 
the powers they exercise within the territory,” he added. “They’ve done 
well on the powers, but not so well on the territory. They now face real 
restrictions.”

The jousting threatens to undermine much of what the Kurds have achieved 
in political influence and to supersede, at least temporarily, the far 
deeper divide between Sunnis and Shiites.

And by helping unite Sunnis and Shiites, the Kurds’ overreaching has 
strengthened the hand of Mr. Maliki despite widespread doubts about his 
ability to govern effectively. The tensions could even persuade the 
central government to further postpone an already delayed referendum on 
whether to make Kirkuk part of the Kurds’ semiautonomous region.

“The government got a lot of support when they stood against the 
exaggerated demands of the Kurds,” said Jaber Habeeb, an independent 
Shiite member of Parliament who is also a political science professor at 
Baghdad University. But to capitalize on this support, which is almost 
certain to be temporary, he said, the government must move quickly to 
improve electricity, water and other basic services.

The Kurds have been locked for decades in a power struggle with Sunni 
Arabs, most recently with Mr. Hussein. That led to the Hussein 
government’s Anfal campaign, in which about 180,000 Kurds died and 2,000 
Kurdish villages were destroyed, according to Kurdish counts.

The United States and its allies created a no-flight zone over the 
Kurdish areas after the Persian Gulf war in 1991, and the areas have 
since become increasingly affluent. While much of Iraq has been engulfed 
in violence since 2003, Kurdistan has been notably peaceful, with 
streams of foreign investment and a building boom in Erbil, the largest 
city. Against that backdrop, the Kurdish aspiration to bring more 
territory, including Kirkuk, into its semiautonomous region looks greedy 
to the Arabs.

In a signal of its displeasure, Parliament has refused to approve a new 
budget because it awards the Kurds 17 percent of the total revenues, 
which many representatives say is more than their share based on 
population. Because Iraq has not had a census in decades, it is 
impossible to know the true size of the Kurdish population. Some Kurdish 
leaders say it could be 23 percent; some Arabs say it is 13 percent.

The Kurds are also believed to collect millions of dollars in duties on 
goods coming into Iraq but they neither send the money to Baghdad nor 
share accounts of the income, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Parliament members are also angered that the Kurds want Baghdad to pay 
salaries of their militia, the pesh merga, from the Defense Ministry’s 
budget. The pesh merga operate primarily in Kurdistan rather than 
serving the country as a whole.

However, the Kurds contend that in the event of an invasion they would 
be on the front lines. Such a situation seems all too real to the Kurds, 
because Turkey has recently threatened to invade to rout the rebel 
Kurdistan Workers Party. The rebels have been mounting attacks over the 
border into Turkish territory.

Perhaps most grating for Iraqi Arabs, the Kurds have refused to back 
down on the oil exploration contracts they have signed with foreign 
companies. Arabs view the central government as the only entity 
empowered to approve contracts, albeit in consultation with the regions 
where the oil is located.

The Kurds argue that the central government has been dragging its feet 
on an oil law and that they cannot afford to defer oil exploration and 
development further, said Ros Shawees, a former vice president of Iraq 
and point man in Baghdad for Massoud Barzani, the president of the 
semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government.

The Kurds acknowledge that they are worried by the opposition that has 
developed, although they are reluctant to concede that they may have 
overplayed their hand. “It is necessary to keep such feelings to a 
minimum,” Mr. Shawees said. “We have to work in different respects to 
show that the Kurdish region doesn’t just make demands and take things, 
but that the region is an example for all regions and it can benefit all 
Iraq.”

For now, however, the budget has yet to be approved, the oil law and 
revenue sharing laws are in limbo, and there is a new and visible fault 
line on the Iraqi political scene.

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