[Marxism] Iraq of '08 Eerily Like Vietnam of '68

[Greg McDonald <sabocat59@xxxxxxx>]

Published on Thursday, January 31, 2008 by The Times Union (Albany,  
New York)

Iraq of ‘08 Eerily Like Vietnam of ‘68

by Thomas A. Bass and Maurice Isserman

The last time the United States lulled itself into thinking that a  
military surge was working was January 1968, just before the Tet  
lunar New Year ushered in the Year of the Monkey. Gen. William  
Westmoreland, commanding America’s half million troops in Vietnam,  
assured President Johnson that 65 percent of the South Vietnamese  
population was living in secure areas, with “victory in sight.”

America was shocked when it got the news that early on the morning of  
Jan. 31, 1968, a hole had been blown in the wall of the United States  
Embassy in Saigon. The compound was occupied by Communist forces,  
while other targets throughout Saigon and a hundred other cities in  
South Vietnam were under attack.

The last of the communist offensive was repulsed by Feb. 23. That  
allowed the U.S. military to claim victory, but the Tet Offensive was  
a major blow. Only when the cable traffic was released after the war  
did we learn that U.S. commanders had contemplated using nuclear  
weapons to counter the attacks. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of  
Staff called it “a near thing,” while advising Johnson that this  
“major, powerful nationwide assault has by no means run its course.”

This was indeed the case when the Communists launched another mini- 
Tet offensive three months later, shelling Saigon with 122 mm Russian  
rockets and driving American casualties back toward their February  
level of 500 a week.

In March 1968, after squeaking out a narrow victory in the New  
Hampshire presidential primary over anti-war challenger Eugene  
McCarthy, Lyndon Johnson quit the race and partially halted the  
bombing of North Vietnam. In May, the Paris peace talks began,  
inaugurating the torturous process that would end, seven years later,  
with America’s disorderly retreat from Vietnam.

Claims that victory is at hand in the Iraq war are as fatuous and  
unsubstantiated as Westmoreland’s belief in 1968 that he was seeing  
“the light at the end of the tunnel.” In spite of the optimistic talk  
coming from Baghdad that “civilian deaths have decreased by 62  
percent,” the metrics measuring progress in Iraq are no more  
believable than they were 40 years ago in Vietnam. In fact, America’s  
military adventure in Iraq is even less sustainable than it was in  
Vietnam.

In 1968, the United States had a military draft and a surplus of 18- 
year-olds, and it had yet to commit any of its Reserve or National  
Guard units to the war. Today, the United States has 160,000 troops  
in Iraq, many of them reservist and national guard forces (not  
counting Blackwater and other hired guns). Regardless of the  
situation on the ground, these troops will soon be coming to the end  
of their 15-month tours of duty. There is no draft and no possibility  
of instituting one, and there are not enough fresh units to replace  
those in the field. The military is finding it hard to keep up  
enlistments, even with lowered standards, and junior officers are  
refusing to re-up.

U.S. military commanders are aware that maintaining, never mind  
increasing, U.S. forces in Iraq is a logistical impossibility. And so  
are the Iraqis. Iraqi forces opposed to the U.S. occupation have not  
been eliminated, but are merely lying low. The media focus on al- 
Qaida is misleading, since it is a minor component in this war  
compared to the various Sunni and Shiite militias, who for their own  
reasons have temporarily suspended attacks on U.S. forces and each  
other’s civilians.

Borrowing a page from the playbook of Lawrence of Arabia, the United  
States has put the Shiite militias and Sunni tribes on the U.S.  
payroll. Infusions of cold cash, in a conflict already costing more  
than $2 billion a week, have created a welfare warfare state, with  
many of Iraq’s insurgent forces being fed, trained and equipped by  
the United States. But incorporating one-time insurgents into U.S.- 
backed paramilitary groups guarantees neither their future loyalty  
nor the future stability of Iraq. Leaders of the Shiite and Sunni  
militias know full well that the number of U.S. boots on the ground  
will be going down later this year, which is when the real battle for  
control of neighborhoods, cities, regions, and oil will begin in  
earnest.

On Jan. 5, the U.S. military command in Baghdad revealed that an  
Iraqi soldier had opened fire on the Americans in his joint patrol,  
on the day after Christmas, killing two soldiers and wounding three  
others. We can expect more incidents like this as American forces  
begin to dwindle next summer. In the meantime, the calm prevailing  
over Tet in Iraq has the same eerie unreality that it had 40 years  
ago in Vietnam.

Welcome to the Year of the Rat.

Thomas Bass teaches at the University at Albany. His book on Vietnam,  
“The Spy Who Loved Us,” will be published later this year. Maurice  
Isserman teaches at Hamilton College. He is co-author of “America  
Divided: The Civil War of the 1960s.”

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