[Marxism] MH: Vote may hasten Castro reign's end

["Walter Lippmann" <walterlx@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

These are intelligent speculations, based on about as little knowledge
as the rest of us have. They're not shrill or stupid. Go ahead and see
for yourself. There's a discussion board at the HERALD for those who'd 
like to make some public comments. Most of what's there now is on the
lameola side. Paolo Spadoni is always a thoughtful commentator on Cuba.
He never says if he's been there, but he seems to have a decent sense
of many important issues. 

Particularly notable here are comments made here by Miriam Leiva, one
of the better-known dissident leaders. She clearly does not at all
echo the call by the Miami militants for any kind of boycott or effort
to spoil the ballots, etc. Voter turnout is going to be high, but we
will also see some variations. All 614 of the candidates for National
Assembly will be elected, since all are running unopposed. In the last
ANPP there were only 609 delegates. One good way to think about these
Cuban elections is to see them as a gigantic political mobilization,
a rally in electoral form. And they have a similar political content
to a demonstration, like May Day and July 26th, except that there are
not going to be speeches on Sunday. All of that has already been done.

To get a good sense of Cuban politics at the moment, I'd recommend a
reading of Raul Castro's remarks to the recent session of the Cuban
National Assembly of People's Power:
http://www.walterlippmann.com/rc-12-28-2007.html 

and Raul's speech last summer at July 26th:
http://www.walterlippmann.com/rc-07-26-2007.html 
=======================================================================

MIAMI HERALD

Posted on Sat, Jan. 19, 2008
Vote may hasten Castro reign's end
BY FRANCES ROBLES

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/cuba/story/385624.html 

Cuba's election Sunday for the national legislature includes the ailing
Fidel Castro as a candidate, but experts say the vote may well be the first
step toward his retirement.

Castro has recently hinted he's willing to give up his role of president --
opening the door for the first time for the rubber-stamp National Assembly
to become a critical force in choosing who runs the island, experts say.

''Is the Council of State going to elect a chief of state for the next five
years a person who has not been seen in public for a year and a half?'' said
Cuba expert Paolo Spadoni, a visiting assistant professor at Rollins College
in Winter Park.

''To me, it's more probable that he will relinquish that role,'' he said.
``There's a good chance Fidel Castro will not be the next president.''

Cubans head to the polls Sunday to choose 614 members of the National
Assembly. All the candidates are running uncontested and have virtually no
chance of losing. Among them: Fidel Castro, 81, whose name will appear on
the ballot representing Santiago de Cuba.

Castro was nominated even though he turned over power to his brother Raúl
''temporarily'' in July 2006 after suffering from intestinal bleeding. Three
surgeries later, he has not returned to office, and 75-year-old Raúl
continues to run the nation.

The elder Castro has only been seen in sporadic videos and photographs, the
latest this week when he appeared in a video with Brazilian President Luiz
Inácio Lula da Silva.

''I think Fidel is ready to take on his political role in Cuba and his
historical role before the world,'' Lula da Silva said after his meeting. He
added that Castro was ''incredibly lucid'' and has ``impeccable health.''

POSSIBLE CHANGE

But despite Lula da Silva's and others' assurances that Castro's health is
on the upswing, experts say the next part of the Cuban election process
could show otherwise.

The winners of Sunday's National Assembly election will choose which members
will serve on the legislature's ruling Council of State, which in turn
selects the president every five years. That decision is expected in early
March. Castro's title of president refers to the presidency of the Council
of State.

There is a good chance Castro could either withdraw his name from
consideration or be named to a honorary post where he can continue writing
essays on world issues and offer guidance, Cuba watchers say. The decision
would pave the way for a permanent title for Raúl or perhaps open the way
for someone younger.

''My basic duty is not to cling to office and even less to obstruct the path
of younger people, but to pass on the experiences and ideas whose modest
worth stems from the exceptional era in which I have lived,'' Castro said in
a letter to the Cuban people in December.

This week, Castro wrote that he's too sick to speak directly to his
constituents, which further fueled speculation that one of the world's
longest-serving rulers was ready to pass on the torch.

''It's really unheard of in the annals of history to have a temporary head
of state for that long,'' said Mauricio Font, who heads the Bildner Center
for Western Hemisphere Studies in New York. ``It's getting to be a bit
bizarre. Cuba must be a really weird place right now, because nobody really
knows what's going on.''

CUBAN PRESS

The Cuban press has hailed Sunday's election as a true democratic process --
one that will change the face of the National Assembly.

More than 60 percent of the candidates are under 50, Cuba's daily newspaper
Granma reported, and only one-third are incumbents. Women make up 42 percent
of the candidates, and blacks 20 percent. Only 17 percent of the candidates
are old enough to have experienced capitalism in pre-Castro Cuba.

A Santería high priest and three evangelical ministers are also on the
ballot.

''This is not a free democratic election. It's a farce,'' said Eleno Oviedo,
a member of Plantados, an organization of former political prisoners. ``It's
something that doesn't mean anything for freedom, doesn't mean anything for
democracy.''

His and other Miami exile groups are urging Cubans to boycott the process.

''Fidel Castro will be reelected,'' said prominent dissident Miriam Leiva.
``That said, according to what he expressed in his reflections, it seems he
will take a role of guide, advisor or supervisor. That means it could create
the position of honorary president or . . . continue to be president but
with someone else actually doing the job.''

In Cuba, she said, most people expect Raúl Castro's power to be reaffirmed.

If a new president is named, not only would it dramatically seal Cuba's
transition of power, but it could also cause a leadership shuffle in the top
halls of power. Vice President Carlos Lage, Assembly Speaker Ricardo Alarcón
and Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque could be tapped for higher positions
-- or pushed aside.








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