[Marxism] A U.S.-Iranian thaw?

[Ethan Young <ethanyoung@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

[These items come from a hawkish Israeli news site.]


DEBKAfile Exclusive: Saudi-Iranian rapprochement gains impetus with 
Washingtonâs 
blessing. Moscow sets timetable to finish Bushehr reactor

December 13, 2007, 9:26 PM (GMT+02:00)

Saudi king Abdullah has invited Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to be the first Islamic 
Republic president to perform the pilgrimage to Mecca, which begins on Dec. 18. 
It will be their second public appearance together in two weeks. Their first 
was 
at the GCC summit in Doha, where they arrived hand in hand. DEBKAfile and 
DEBKA-Net-Weekly have closely tracked the unfolding of the Saudi-brokered 
Washington-Tehran dialogue, moving on now to the evolution of Riyadhâs own 
epic 
rapprochement with Tehran.

This development signals Saudi recognition of Iran and its president as 
regional 
powers and King Abdullahâs willingness to share his Middle East leadership 
role 
with an Iranian partner. The rug is implicitly pulled from under the 
international campaign to punish Iran severely for its nuclear activities, 
while 
Tehranâs ally Syria and surrogates, Hizballah, Hamas and Jihad Islami, gain 
new 
standing.

Moscow has also announced a timetable for finishing Iranâs nuclear reactor at 
Bushehr complete with fuel, confirming DEBKAfileâs report of Dec. 4.

Bush Embarks on Saudi-Brokered Deal with Tehran
December 8, 2007, 10:02 PM (GMT+02:00)
From DEBKA-Net-Weekly
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1321
DEBKA-Net-Weekly 328 first revealed on Dec. 7 that a Washington-Tehran 
understanding is in the making, brokered by Saudi Arabia. According to 
Washington 
and intelligence sources, the first steps of the dialogue were made possible by 
the US National Intelligence Estimate of Dec. 3 affirming that Iranâs nuclear 
weapons program had been put on hold in 2003. This public statement effectively 
took the US military option off the table, as stipulated by Riyadh and Tehran.

The Saudis have been offering to mediate the US-Iranian dispute since the 
beginning of 2007. In early November, DEBKA-Net-Weekly disclosed, the White 
House 
announced it was ready to deal. But first, Tehran must undertake to halt its 
arms 
smuggling into Iraq, guarantee non-interference in the election of the next 
Lebanese president later that month and tacitly approve Syrian participation in 
the Middle East conference at Annapolis on Nov. 27. Furthermore, Iran must 
guarantee not to torpedo the conference, to which the administration attached 
the 
highest importance, by unleashing its terrorist pawns against Israel.

Shortly after DEBKA-Net-Weeklyâs exclusive disclosure, the well-connected 
Saudi 
journalist Jihad El-Khazen gave his version of the course of events in the Arab 
newspaper Al-Hayat :

"Here is what happened: The rate of violent acts dropped in Iraq; therefore the 
American intelligence services discovered that Iran had halted its military 
nuclear program in 2003. This means that the resumption of violence will make 
American intelligence services find out that there is a secret military program 
that is different from the peaceful and famous one.

The Saudi reporter went on to ask: "Is there a deal between the Bush 
administration and Iran? I cannot categorically assert that a deal was 
concluded 
between the two parties through direct negotiations; however, there is an 
understanding resulting in the 2007 national intelligence report.â

Saudi and American sources told DEBKAfile that President George W. Bush used 
the 
Annapolis conference as a piece of theater, which presented a sham moderate 
Arab 
front against Iran to disguise the intense work underway on a Saudi-mediated 
accommodation between Washington and Tehran.

The Bush administration appears to be in the midst of developing a new foreign 
strategy based on five key elements:

1. The halt of Iranian weapons and road bomb shipments into Iraq for use 
against 
US forces;

2. An Iranian instruction to Hizballah to open the way for the election of a 
Lebanese president, in return for which Washington will not interfere with the 
formation of a new government with a place of honor for the Iranian surrogate 
militia.

In other words, the Bush administration is not only engaged in a sellout of the 
Israeli government but also of the pro-Western Lebanese prime minister Fouad 
Siniora.

3. The cessation of Iranian arms and roadside bombs to Afghanistan.

4. The naming of Saudi Arabia as a channel for arbitrating American and Iranian 
differences.

5. A US pledge to backtrack on its charges that the Iran is engaged in 
developing 
nuclear weapons. This pledge was embodied in the dramatically revised US 
National 
Intelligence Estimate compared with its estimate of 2005, and effectively 
lifted 
not only the American military axe from over Iranâs strategic and economic 
infrastructure â and possibly regime - but also tied Israelâs hands.

The radical Washington about-face has in the last ten days touched off a chain 
of 
repercussions.

DEBKAfile's sources disclose that Iranâs extremist president Mahmoud 
Ahmadinejad 
began purging the Iranian leadership of his opponents, emboldened by what he 
perceived as the victory of the intransigent nuclear policy he and the 
Revolutionary Guards had pursued.

Still in crowing mode, Iranâs oil minister Gholam Hossein Nozari announced 
Saturday, Dec. 8, the cessation of oil transactions in US dollars. He labeled 
the 
greenbacks an âunreliableâ currency.

Less than 24 hours after the NIE was released, the Kremlin announced resumption 
of Russian work to finish Iranâs nuclear reactor at Bushehr and the 
consignment 
of nuclear fuel.

In Lebanon, the Hizballah opened the door for the election of chief of staff 
Gen. 
Michel Suleiman as president. To buy a stable Beirut government, Washington 
accepted a pro-Syrian Hizballah sympathizer as president.

The prospects of tough UN sanctions against Iranâs continued enrichment of 
uranium dimmed dramatically. The Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said 
there is no point in the light of the US intelligence reassessment. Saturday, 
the 
Iranian ambassador in Tokyo invited Japanese investors to put their money in 
Iranian oil production which he said could be expanded by 30 percent. Tehran 
has 
clearly lost its fear of international economic sanctions.

Yet Israeli leaders Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak are still touting 
sanctions for Iran. They hope to gloss over the serious upset in Jerusalem over 
the Bush administrationâs willingness to deal with Iran and Saudi Arabia at 
the 
expense of Israeli concessions to the Palestinians.

Damascus-based Hamas and Jihad Islami leaders have begun marathon talks with 
Syrian and Saudi officials on terms for an informal truce to halt their missile 
bombardment of Israel from the Gaza Strip. They are anxious to ward off an 
Israel 
military operation. By tying Israelâs military hands in the Gaza Strip as 
well as 
Iran, the US-Saudi-Iranian understanding will serve to stabilize Hamasâ rule 
in 
Gaza.

Moscow has dispatched war fleets to the Mediterranean and the northeast 
Atlantic.

A flotilla of six Russian warships including a carrier will dock at Syriaâs 
Tartous port for the first time.

Whether this ambitious package can be assembled and tied up is moot for all 
three 
parties, the Americans, the Iranians and the Saudis. Even if the talks are 
brought to conclusion, the package could leak at the seams at any time.

Tehran does not expect the US to withdraw its naval carriers and strike forces 
from Iranian Gulf shores yet, whereas Washington does not delude itself that 
Iranian arms shipments to Iraq and Afghanistan, or even Lebanon, will 
completely 
dry up overnight.

Both Washington and Tehran have not yet abandoned their fist-shaking stance.

Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that a new strategic bloc has taken its first 
steps and the first rumbles are already felt.

For Israel, the impact is more radical than a few rumbles. Its special 
relationship with the United States has collapsed amid its worst foreign policy 
debacle in decades. The Olmert government is paying the price for the military 
and diplomatic mismanagement of the war against Lebanonâs Hizballah of 2006.

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