[Marxism] Egypt and Saudi Arabia make new overtures to Iran

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1214/p01s04-wome.html

Egypt and Saudi Arabia make new overtures to Iran
Are US Arab allies playing 'good cop' with Ahmadinejad to US 'bad cop'?
By Dan Murphy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

Cairo

Iran is suddenly enjoying a thaw with its Arab neighbors – all close US 
allies – in the wake of a US intelligence report that judged Iran 
probably suspended its work on nuclear weapons four years ago.

Regional actors, in particular, are scrambling to engage Iran 
diplomatically, and analysts say they have the tacit approval of the 
Americans.

Egypt, a US ally and the only Arab state not to have full diplomatic 
relations with Iran, this week sent a high-level delegation to Tehran 
for the first time since that country's Islamic revolution in 1979. On 
Thursday, Russia said it would resume work on an Iranian civilian 
nuclear plant.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad was invited by the Qatari emir to 
speak to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) earlier this month – the 
first time that has ever happened. On Wednesday, Iran announced that 
Saudi Arabia had invited Mr. Ahmedinejad to participate in the hajj 
pilgrimage to Mecca, a first for an Iranian leader since the 1979 
revolution.

"Qatar could not have invited Ahmedinejad to the GCC without an 
understanding with the Americans. I don't think Egypt would be sending a 
diplomat without some sort of green light either," says Emad Gad, an 
expert on regional politics at the Al Ahram Center, a government-linked 
think tank in Cairo. "All of this is part of a strategy, and I think 
it's an American strategy as well, to keep the freeze on the nuclear 
program while creating a friendlier climate."

The strategy that's now being crafted looks very similar to the one that 
US hawks felt was discredited before the American decision to invade 
Iraq: One of sanctions and limited diplomatic outreach, with only muted 
threats to use force.

Then, proponents of an invasion argued that Iraq's Saddam Hussein was 
developing weapons of mass destruction in defiance of UN sanctions and 
that such measures were insufficient. While it turned out that Mr. 
Hussein had no such weapons, analysts like Mr. Gad argue that the US 
invasion of Iraq was decisive in prompting the Iranian's change of course.

"Iran's decision came in the autumn of 2003 ... at least six months 
after the occupation of Iraq. So the issue here is not sanctions, but 
the occupation, " he says. "If the [Bush administration] came to know 
that [Iran's nuclear weapons] program had resumed, then the policy would 
change again."

Indeed, while the thaw may be pegged to the US National Intelligence 
Estimate (NIE), there remain concerns. The US is pushing for stronger 
sanctions against Iran – Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called Iran 
a "danger" in an Associated Press interview Wednesday – and has the 
backing of Germany and France. These countries and others, particularly 
Iran's Arab neighbors, worry there's little difference between evidence 
of an active quest for nuclear weapons and a civilian nuclear program 
that could, at short notice, be turned in a military direction.

"Notwithstanding the latest elements, everyone is fully conscious of the 
fact that there is a will among the Iranian leaders to obtain nuclear 
weapons," said French President Nicolas Sarkozy Thursday, adding that he 
hopes for new sanctions against Iran. "Why should we renounce 
sanctions.... What made Iran budge so far has been sanctions and firmness."

Even some noted American hawks are saying the sanctions route is still 
the best bet. David Frum, a former speech writer for President George W. 
Bush, who is credited with coining the phrase "axis of evil," wrote in 
Canada's National Post this week that the NIE is a "foundational 
political fact that will make it politically impossible for the Bush 
Administration to launch a strike at Iran's nuclear facilities."

"The Western goal ... should be to drive a wedge between the regime and 
its disaffected population – in the way that the Reagan administration 
worked to isolate and discredit Eastern European communist regimes in 
the 1980s."

A Western diplomat in Cairo, who asks not to be identified, says that 
creating space for Iranian reformers to maneuver is one reason for the 
outreach from Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He says the intent of their 
overtures is to show Iran that there are benefits to cooperation on the 
nuclear issue, while also creating an environment in which internal 
reformers in Iran are less likely to be branded tools of foreign powers.

"We'll be on a less threatening diplomatic track for a while now, as 
long as Ahmedinjad doesn't do anything inflammatory," says the diplomat.

Iran's state news agency described this Wednesday's meeting between 
Egyptian Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein Dirar and Iranian Foreign 
Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as "constructive." Ahmedinejad urged a fast 
normalization of ties, and told reports that "I'm ready to go to Egypt."

Still, the last time Egypt and Iran nearly resumed ties, some four years 
ago, the effort foundered. Egypt sheltered the deposed Shah of Iran 
(Mohammad Reza Pahlavi), after the 1979 revolution. When Egyptian 
President Anwar Sadat, who took in the shah and made peace with Israel, 
was assassinated in 1981, the Iranian state named a major Tehran 
thoroughfare in honor of Khalid Islambouli, Mr. Sadat's killer.

Egypt had demanded the street be renamed as precondition for resuming 
ties. Iran agreed. But Ahmedinjad, then Tehran's mayor, never made the 
change.

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