[Marxism] Ecuador: Correa Plays His Cards Right

[Greg McDonald <sabocat59@xxxxxxx>]

Latin America Economonitor
Ecuador: Correa Plays His Cards Right
  Mark Turner | Sep 12, 2007

On September 30th Ecuador goes to the polls to vote for an assembly  
that will re-write the constitution. A lot of reputations are riding  
on the outcome, not least that of Ecuador’s head of state. President  
Rafael Correa considers the constitutional assembly a vital step in  
his administration and has stated his intention to step down if his  
party, “Movimiento País”, cannot control the new 130 seat body. At  
first sight it seems that Correa is taking a mighty gamble. A recent  
poll suggests that Movimiento País will gain just 40 seats in the 130  
seat assembly (1). However, we believe that the political risk to  
Correa is minimal and he will in fact get the result he wants.


In our view, there are several reasons why the president and his  
newly formed party will almost certainly win through. Firstly,  
Correa’s track record in “beat the pollster” is impressive. In 2006’s  
presidential runoff election against banana magnate Alvaro Ochoa,  
detailed opinion polls pointed to a neck-and-neck race right up to  
the November 26th polling day. In fact, Correa won with a comfortable  
56%. Then on April 15th this year, Ecuador again voted on whether the  
constitutional assembly elections should go ahead in a simple “yes/ 
no” referendum. Again, opinion polls said the result would be close.  
This time, a veritable landslide 81% voted in Correa’s favour. Why  
pollsters seem to get him wrong is debatable. Some say that the  
polling companies are somewhat biased towards the traditional powers  
that Correa is battling against. Others note they don’t seem to  
survey very deeply in rural areas and low income neighbourhoods. But  
for whatever reason, Correa has so far outperformed expectations and  
it would be no surprise to see the same phenomenon this time around.


The next reason to back success for Movimiento País lies with Correa  
himself. Although his honeymoon period approval ratings of up to 76%  
have ostensibly slipped to the mid 50s, his main policy thrusts of  
social equality and the rooting out of corruption are still extremely  
popular. His direct, even confrontational style and left-leaning  
social policies have made him enemies in Ecuadorian society ranks,  
but the wider population sees him as strong, honest and a refreshing  
change. Correa, via his party, has sent out a clear message to the  
electorate. With control of the assembly, Correa will dissolve  
Ecuador’s single house congress and send what he calls that “sewer of  
corruption” packing. This is the policy statement that served him  
well in the votes of the last 12 months and we firmly believe that  
this “anti-fatcat” policy still enjoys overwhelming popular support.  
In short, it’s a winning play.


Dynamics of the September 30th vote also favor the government. Up and  
down Ecuador, there are over 3000 candidates running for a mere 130  
assembly seats. As well as organized political parties and  
established politicians, this number includes local TV celebrities,  
indigenous leaders and suchlike. The 3000-plus candidates are running  
on a mind boggling total of 486 different tickets (typically known as  
“lists” in LatAm electoral systems), and with every party comes a  
different set of proposals that have turned the election into a  
confusing morass of ideas. This, we believe, will play into the hands  
of Correa. When presented with a long list of candidates and parties,  
many Ecuadorians will plump for a party or symbol they know. Correa  
has been prominent on the hustings and in all Movimiento País media  
propaganda, and will gather favour from many who are still not sure  
about what the vote is all about. Surveys (2) suggest that up to 80%  
of voters still undecided on who to support and 70% of voters say  
they will opt for a single “list” when voting (presumably voting for  
a single party and not for different personalities from different  
tickets). And perhaps at this point it is worth mentioning that the  
European Union is sending 130 official observers to ensure the free  
and fair vote that everyone expects.


Meanwhile, Movimiento Pais has rapidly evolved into a fully-fledged  
political machine. It has a clear identity and straightforward  
messages that go down well with amongst a populace that are not the  
most politically sophisticated. His opposition are often lacking in  
these respects. An example of this was a recent anecdote from  
political consultant Jaime Durán Barba (an influential hired gun  
political advisor for aspiring South American politicians, a sort of  
southern hemisphere version of James Carville). In a recent  
interview, he spoke of being invited to a policy meeting for a newly  
formed party hoping for seats in the assembly. When he asked on what  
issues they were seeking election, he was told that they weren’t not  
sure yet and in fact they’d asked him along to help decide what to  
offer people. Durán likened them to a boy scouts meeting.


Finally, Correa’s “all or nothing” gamble on control of the assembly  
isn’t quite as risky as it first seems. Although he hasn’t stated it  
out loud, he has been careful in how he words his resignation threats  
and as long as he is able to control the new assembly via alliances  
with other assembly members and parties he will surely stay on as  
president. Even if Movimiento País falls short of the 66 seats needed  
for outright control, they are a lock for the biggest block of seats  
in the new assembly and will be able to form alliances with other  
members and parties to gain a controlling majority. We would expect  
factions such as indigenous groups and other left wing political  
parties to join forces with Correa.

When all is said and done, we expect President Correa to achieve his  
aims and put his chances of a direct party majority in the assembly  
at around 50/50. However, we would be extremely surprised if he  
cannot do the deals needed for an alliance that will take firm grip  
on the constitutional assembly. After a prolonged period of political  
instability that has seen 7 presidents come and go in the space of  
just 10 years, Correa has been smart in the way he has consolidated  
his mandate from the population and insulated himself against his  
sworn enemies inside the establishment. Once he has control of the  
constitutional assembly, he will have the institutional stability  
that will add momentum to his push for a more socially equitable  
Ecuador.


(1)   http://www.milenio.com/index.php/2007/09/06/117571/
(2)   http://www.elcomercio.com/noticiaEC.asp? 
id_noticia=135149&id_seccion=3



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