[Marxism] Former CIA official now expects massive air war against Iran

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Then: "I don't think the administration is about to carry out military
action," he told me. "The military does not want to do this. We will lose
planes if there is a massive air strike over Iran. We'll have pilots killed
and captured."

...Yesterday, I called the official...

Speaking From Experience, Part II: Former CIA official expects war with Iran
http://harpers.org/archive/2007/09/hbc-90001112

DEPARTMENT      Washington Babylon
BY      Ken Silverstein
PUBLISHED       September 4, 2007

Until recently, I thought the odds that the United States would attack Iran
were less than fifty-fifty, but the chances of a military confrontation are
clearly growing (as my colleague Scott Horton has been reporting on for some
time). Earlier this year, I asked a former CIA official, who was stationed
in the Persian Gulf during the first Gulf War and served in Iraq after the
2003 invasion, if he though the administration was planning a military
strike. "I don't think the administration is about to carry out military
action," he told me.
"The military does not want to do this. We will lose planes if there is a
massive air strike over Iran. We'll have pilots killed and captured."

Yesterday, I called the official-who speaks with me only off the record-and
he now believes a military strike is likely. Here are his comments, which I
offer not as an endorsement of an invasion, but because of his knowledge and
insights into what might lay ahead:

     "It looks like a military strike is in the works and I base that on two
things: observable fact and the rhetoric emanating from the White House.
There's a lot of movement of troops and materiel into the region-it's stuff
the United States can't hide. It's a huge expense to put Navy battle groups
in the Gulf and we've got three of them there.
We've also moved new fighter planes to Guam amidst much public fanfare. You
can plainly see the upturn in US Naval activity in and around the Norfolk
Naval installations. The movement of ships, re-supply, ammunition loading
and general level of activity is high.

The Naval facilities and the ammunition loading areas are well known, and
the activity is readily visible, especially at night. There's a stream of
ships coming in to load up and when they take off new ones come in. There's
only one part of the world where all that stuff is heading. Also, everyone I
know who would be involved in an attack on Iran-pilots and other air
assets-is gone. Normally some of them are around but now all of them are
away at the same time.

The other evidence of a likely strike is all the harsh talk from the White
House. President Bush has been talking about Iran a lot more recently, and
he put the Revolutionary Guard on the list of terrorist groups. Whatever you
think of the president, he has said he won't let Iran move forward with its
nuclear program. I'd take him at his word.

And it's doable. The only part of the military that's not stretched to the
limits in Iraq is the Air Force. It will be a multi-day, multi-target air
campaign-not 'Shock and Awe,' which wasn't shocking and didn't awe anyone,
but a savage blow struck against President Ahmadinejad. We shouldn't hit
Iran's Navy or Air Force but target the nuclear sites and the Revolutionary
Guard.

A measured response helps Ahmadinejad because he's saying the Americans
won't attack, or can't hurt, Iran. A disproportionate response will be hard
for him to explain to the Iranian public."

--30--



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