Re: [Marxism] Paper on Japanese nuclear reactors and earth quakes

["Joaquin Bustelo" <jbustelo@xxxxxxxxx>]

The paper recommended by David starts, "Nuclear facilities are designed so
that earthquakes and other external events will not jeopardise the safety of
the plant. In France for instance, nuclear plants are designed to withstand
an earthquake twice as strong as the 1000-year event calculated for each
site."

That's as far as I got reading because I know France has more than fifty
nuclear power plants. 

Divide the 1000 year event by 50, and you get that, on average, a French
nuclear power plant will face one of those "freak" earthquakes every 20
years. An earthquake "twice as strong" is just a decimal point or two on the
scale used to measure earthquake intensity. For example, a 6.0 earthquake
releases the equivalent of one megaton of TNT; a 6.5 is a five megaton plus
event; a 7.0 is a fifty megaton event. "Twice as strong" is well within the
historical margin of error in measuring earthquake intensities. 

If we had ultra accurate earthquake records going back a few thousand years,
perhaps the French approach would make sense, but it still seems
ultra-reckless to me. But in reality, no one really knows for sure what a
1,000-year event is at those localities, never mind a 10,000 year event or
even a million year event. This is all speculative extrapolation based on a
few decades of more or less accurate measurements. 

These interval between event calculations are very useful for figuring out
the rates insurance companies should charge to cover damages. They are, in
essence, gamblers odds. 

But if I were French, I'd want something a little more substantial and
thought through to protect my life and the lives of my children.

Joaquin


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