[Marxism] A few words on "The Prospects for Peace in Colombia"

[Anthony Boynton <northbogota@xxxxxxxxx>]

A few words on "The Prospects for Peace in Colombia"
by Garry Leech, posted recently on the list by Greg
McDonald (Colombia 2010: Prospects for Peace and the
Polo Democratico. From: Greg McDonald
sabocat59@xxxxxxx,  * Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2007 10:50:20
-0400)
    
Leech's comments are generally well-informed, but
there are a few points where he is not quite on the
mark.

The first is the constitutional bar to Uribe-Velez's
reelection. Uribe Velez was constitutionally barred
from being re-elected the first time. But that was no
problem, they amended the constitution. Some Uribistas
are already campaigning for a new constitutional
amendment to allow a third re-election. 

Whether or not the project of making Uribe de facto
president for life will fly is an interesting
question. The Uribistas hate each other almost as much
as they hate the left, their only option to maintain
power through electoral means ? despite the
presidential ambitions of several Uribista caciques ?
may be a third term for Uribe. 

The second problem with Leech's analysis is that Uribe
Velez's real popularity is falling, even if the polls
don't show it. Yesterday, for the first time in the
current public debate Gustavo Petro, the Polo's point
man on the issue, directly linked Uribe Velez's
brother to the paramilitary AUC. Concurrently,
Uribista infighting is growing.

This gives the paramilitary organizations a lot of
leverage, even if their leaders have to negotiate from
jail cells. Until now they have been able to deliver
the votes to put and keep Uribe in power.

The third issue is Leech's take on the importance of
the ideological anticommunism of the paramilitary
organizations. While he is right that they are
business oriented mafia style organizations, this does
not in any way imply that they are less prone to
assasinating their political opponents than the old
style paramilitary organizations. On the contrary, in
their areas of influence they assassinate anyone who
might beat them in an election, including other right
wingers. If Polo candidates threatened their control
in their areas of influence, or even perhaps their
hold on Congress, another bloodbath could be in the
works.

However, I don't think that anything like the
extermination campaign that took place against the UP
is in the cards. The main reason is that the Polo
represents an acceptable alternative to much of the
Colombian bourgeoisie. 

Venezuela is Colombian's second largest trading
partner, after the US. Venezuela's window to energy
trading with Asia, particularly China will go through
Colombia bypassing the Panama canal.

The Polo is not anti-business, and could be very good
for business in the current political alignment of
Latin America. The Colombian bourgeoisie is
considering its options, and watching Bush crash and
burn is causing them to seriously look for Plan B. Th
picture that is emerging is a Plan linking Colombia
more directly to Asia and Europe, closer ties to
Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil, and putting the Polo in
power at home.

Leech correctly characterizes the Polo as center left.


A good example is the city of Cali, which is a mess in
many ways. The Polo controls the city government, and
its publicly owned utility. the utility is a
horizontally integrated company including traditional
telecommunication (not cell phone) service,
electricity (not natural gas), water, and sewers. The
company breaks even, as losses from the electricy
business are balanced by profits from the telephone
business. But the market is now open to private
companies which have entered with huge amounts of
capital. The telephone side of the business is losing
market share, and has no access to credit. 

The Polo is preparing for reelection to the city
government (mayor and council) on an
anti-privatization  platform, but is privately
negotiating to spin off the telecommunications part of
EMCALI after the elections.

The fourth problem with Leech's analysis is the drug
business. He doesn't mention it. But this is the
business that both the AUC and the FARC are in, as
well as a large number of Colombia's big landowners. 

Colombia is caught in a trap that has no easy solution
within its border. The demand for illegal drugs from
the United States, Japan, and Europe remains high, and
profits remain astronomical. The most profitable
businesses in Colombia are drug dealing and money
laundering. As long as cocaine and heroin are illegal
in the imperialist countries, this will continue to be
true. On the other hand, as long as they remain
illegal in Colombia, the drug dealers will be a source
of corruption of government, and a source of violence
as they settle their disputes outside of the channels
of legality.

The fifth problem is Leech does not mention the issue
of the hostages held by the FARC, Along with Ingrid
Betancourt, the former presidential candidate of
Colombia's version of the Green Party, the FARC has
dozens of assorted local politicians and prominent
people in its custody. In a certain sense they are one
the most important guarantees against a massacre of
the left. The FARC can not release those people unless
the government can give some real guarantees that it
can come in from the cold.

To do that will mean not only putting a few
paramilitary commanders behind bars, but also removing
the real organizers of the death squads from power.
They are generals, admirals, highly placed
politicians, and a clatch of US ambassadors and other
embassy types.

The Polo could win the elections in 2010, but problems
four and five above would still stand in the way of a
peace deal with the FARC.

All the best, Anthony




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