Re: [Marxism] Re: What will be effect of N Korea nuclear test?

[<g.maclennan@xxxxxxxxxx>]

We are all trying to second guess the Bush regime. I think that is a difficult 
but also a *worthwhile* exercise.  My experience with students is that they do 
want to talk about what might happen.  The CIA play out various senarios and so 
should we. You learn from doing it.

However we are handicapped by a short fall in terms of knowing all the factors 
involved.  I myself am heavily influenced by the Wallerstien thesis that the 
USA is in terminal decline. That to my mind means they are more likely to play 
what they feel is their Ace - the USA airforce.

One thing Iraq & the war in Lebanon have shown that Airforces can delvier great 
destruction but to reconstruct you need to occupy and that takes troops on the 
ground. Bar some major attack on  the USA Bush cannot deliver the only 
mechanism that would provde these troops and that is of course conscription.

So America, I think, will snarl etc at N. Korea, but bomb Iran and do the 
covert operation thing there as well. So what will be achieved by this?  Well 
as I have said before the threat to bomb a country into the stone age will be 
acted out. 

There will be a cost for destroying Iran, but I am not at all certain that this 
cost will seem excessive to the Americans.  What card can Iran play as a 
counter?

Presumably it could  destroy the Shia-USA alliance in Iraq.  But I am not so 
sure about that. However in the event of a military attack on North Korea, the 
latter could still possibly play the China card.  

So to sum up:  my feeling is that somthing big is about to happen. The American 
airforce is about to initiate another display of power. Though as David points 
out this is a very volatile period and the best laid schemes of mice and the 
Pentagon can go agley.

regards

Gary

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