[Marxism] What will be effect of N Korea nuclear test?

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Like most more or less lib-rad responses to China's nuclear test, this
one is probably too pessimistic.  The problem is that neither Russia nor
China will support a US blockade of North Korea such as he speculates
the US will launch.  I am sure it is under discussion, and must be
opposed, but I think the opposition is going to win this one -- and
probably before any fatal action is taken.

Louis Proyect cited the Chinese troops in Lebanon as evidence that they
might really abandon North Korea to Washington.
He forgot a tiny detail.  Those who govern in China today do not care at
all about Lebanon.  This is a gesture to show their "good will" to
imperialism.  But they have to care about North Korea.  If North Korea
is to fall, they would topple it, and their experience in the war
against Vietnam back in 1979 was not promising.   I suspect that North
Korea has a fanatical popular base of support when it defends
sovereignty -- it certainly has this in South Korea, and I doubt it
would have this if it did not exist in the north.
 
If China allowed the US government to strangle the North Korean regime
with a military blockade, which would lead to invasion if successful,
this would register not only the establishment of capitalism in China
but the beginnings of recolonization  OF CHINA. (In my view, this would
flow from the establishment of capitalism unless China has become a true
great capitalist power capable of defending its sphere of influence
against an imperialist competitor, in which case they would still oppose
the US operation). 

China and Russia may well participate in tightening sanctions, but they
will not support a blockade, they will openly or covertly sabotage it
decisively. And especially China.  And remember the 
Chinese public opinion that remembers their pride and confidence in
gaining nuclear weapons is probably substantial, as is the South Korean
opinion that identifies with "Korea" having "its own" nuclear deterrent.


So I think the end result of the North Korean test will result in more
deterrent power against US imperialism and therefore less credibility
overall for the threat of imperialist use of nuclear weapons, and more
credibility for disarmament efforts -- however partial -- even among the
imperialist themselves. That includes if Japan responds by developingits
own nuclear deterrent, which it can do VERY quickly. That will just
register the collapse of the nonproliferationr regime which aimed at
guaranteeing US dominance and Third World defenselessness.

Nonproliferation has suffered a huge defeat, and the prospects for
nuclear disarmament -- partial or otherwise -- are thereby improved.
Fred Feldman

October 9, 2006
North Korea's Big Bang
The Boom Heard Around the World

By RON JACOBS

August 29, 1949-Soviet Union. October 16, 1964-Peoples Republic of
China. October 7, 2004, Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea. Three
dates. Three first time nuclear tests by three enemies (at their
respective times) of Washington. All three tests were preceded by
threats from that same Washington that warned of dire consequences for
the governments that dare to ignore those threats. In their wake, the
tests were condemned by Washington and whomever its allies at the time
might have been. Then, the world continued on. In retrospect, this was
probably because the Soviet Union presented a counterweight to
Washington's swaggering desires.

Meanwhile, four other countries officially--Britain, France, India and
Pakistan--officially joined the nuclear club, with another, being
Israel, unofficially a member. There was no alarm registered in
Washington at Britain's application for membership and very little at
France's. India and Pakistan provoked a bit of a shock, but nothing
truly substantial changed in their relationship with the US. The outcry
from other nations not considered friends of Washington was less
positive. At the same time, they couldn't help but notice that a nuclear
enemy of Washington was much less likely to be attacked than a
non-nuclear one.

Which brings us back to Pyongyang. Unlike the the time of the Chinese
test in 1964, there is no other superpower to prevent Washington from
doing something provocative and stupid. Back then, President Johnson
released a statement that essentially minimized the importance of
China's test and called for continuing work towards disarmament. Of
course, he also said that the US would always have a larger nuclear
arsenal. In reaction to northern Korea's tests, unofficial statements in
the media from various unnamed officials are hinting that the US plans
include stopping every northern Korean ship and boarding it for
inspection--essentially a blockade of Pyongyang's harbors. In addition,
Washington will probably press for further sanctions against the
country. Whether or not such sanctions will get the full agreement of
the UN Security Council is unknown. Of course, the treat of military
action always looms in the background. If such a threat is discussed,
one can be pretty certain that it would meet with little opposition from
any politician in Washington. After all, it was Bill Clinton who almost
went to war with Pyongyang back in 1993 when Pyongyang's leadership
threatened to reprocess its reactors' plutonium rods, thereby making
weapons grade fuel.

In fact, it was the failure of Washington to follow through on its end
of the deal brokered by Clinton's administration--a deal that would have
provided northern Korea with light-water reactors capable of making
energy but not weapons--that some say led to the impasse between the two
capitals. However, it should be noted that Pyongyang had frozen the
reactor where yesterday's test fuel came from after 1994 under the terms
agreed to by Washington and Pyongyang. Indeed, it was only after George
Bush included Pyongyang in his so-called axis of evil that the reactor
was started up again and the process that led to the nuclear test
restarted.

One can be certain that there are those in Washington's circles of power
that welcome Pyongyang's test. In their minds. the very fact of its
occurrence means that they no longer have to pretend that there is a
diplomatic route to resolving the Korean situation. Not that this
administration really understands the meaning of diplomacy anyhow, but
this test means they don't even have to pretend. Add to this the fact
that the Japanese government has been moving towards a stance that is
considerably more militaristic than at any time since the end of World
War Two and the potential for some kind of military ugliness looms
ominously in the background.

Besides the very real threat of some kind of military action that could
escalate into a full-scale war, the other distressing aspect of this
entire scenario is that it could most likely have been prevented. If
Washington had agreed to sit down with Pyongyang and hold head-to-head
talks that included the signing of a peace treaty between the two
nations, the world would not find itself in today's situation. Yet, for
some reason known only to a relative few, Washington has refused to sign
such a treaty (or even hold head-to-head talks), even though military
hostilities ended over fifty years ago. Consequently, we find ourselves
in another contrived situation that could lead to another pointless war.
Although one can hope that saner heads prevail, the debacles in Iraq and
Afghanistan are reminders that the trend is in the opposite direction.

Ron Jacobs is author of The Way the Wind Blew: a history of the Weather
Underground, which is just republished by Verso. Jacobs' essay on Big
Bill Broonzy is featured in CounterPunch's new collection on music, art
and sex, Serpents in the Garden. He can be reached at:
rjacobs3625@xxxxxxxxxxx


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