[Marxism] LA Times article hints: Can any one be Mexico Pres. except Lopez Obrador?

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico3sep03,0,60020
97.story?coll=la-home-world


NEWS ANALYSIS


Lopez Obrador Shows Strength on 2 Fronts

Mexico's presidential runner-up proves he commands authority within the
legislature as well as on the streets to push for change.
By Sam Enriquez
Times Staff Writer

September 3, 2006

MEXICO CITY - By delivering a symbolic but stinging blow to the
government of President Vicente Fox, losing presidential candidate
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador clinched the first round in his fight for a
nonviolent revolution to transform Mexico. 

The leftist leader harnessed the full support of his party's
congressional delegation to block Fox from delivering his nationally
televised State of the Nation speech Friday, humiliating the president
and raising fears over his apparent inability to exercise authority
against a growing opposition.

"The question becomes, is Mexico on the brink of political crisis? And
you could say after Friday that it's entered that realm," said Armand
Peschard-Sverdrup, a Mexico expert for the Center for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington. "There doesn't seem to be a
willingness to negotiate or compromise.. It's like two trains on a
head-on collision course."

Authorities deployed thousands of federal police at the Congress
building Friday, anticipating a rush by Lopez Obrador supporters who
want a recount of the July 2 election, apparently won by conservative
Felipe Calderon by less than 1 percentage point. 

But Lopez Obrador called off his army of street demonstrators in the
late afternoon. Instead, invited lawmakers of his Democratic Revolution
Party, or PRD, rose from their seats that evening and took over the hall
at a prearranged signal, presumably at the behest of Lopez Obrador.

The seizure of the congressional dais in the moments before Fox's speech
revealed the twin strategies of Lopez Obrador to use street
demonstrations and Mexico's legislature to hammer away at Fox, Calderon
and their National Action Party, or PAN, analysts said.

Looking beyond the disputed election, Lopez Obrador is expected to use
both means to try to steer Mexico back to a more protected economy,
countering what he sees as unfair global competition that keeps half the
country in poverty.

"If he were just a street guy, that'd be one thing," said Daniel Lund, a
Mexico City-based political analyst and pollster. "But he's one of the
best political operatives in the country. His goal for the PRD is to
deepen their roots and build electorally."

In the last 10 years, first as party president and later as Mexico City
mayor, Lopez Obrador helped his party win local, state and federal
offices. Last month, the PRD elected its first governor of Chiapas
state, defeating a rival who had the backing of a last-minute coalition
of PAN and the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which held the
presidency for seven decades until Fox's victory in 2000. 

Many had predicted fractures within the PRD this summer after Lopez
Obrador directed weeks of street blockades and protest camps in the
center of the capital that, though largely peaceful, snarled traffic,
drove away business and alienated residents.

But even though his often strident speeches have scared away many former
supporters, Lopez Obrador showed he maintained a firm grasp on his
party, now the second-largest bloc in Mexico's newly elected Congress.

"Being able to stand up united and prevent the president from delivering
his speech shows the strength of the movement," Peschard-Sverdrup said.

Lopez Obrador, 52, built his support from the mayor's office and the car
caravans that crisscrossed the country in nearly 10 months of
presidential campaigning. 

The charismatic and fiery speaker filled plazas with the many poor who
have fallen further behind under Mexico's decade-old move toward a
free-market system.

"He believes in revolutionary nationalism: big government, social
programs, protectionism and being self-sufficient in oil and natural
gas," said George Grayson, a political science professor at the College
of William & Mary in Virginia and author of a recent Lopez Obrador
biography.

Lopez Obrador lost by 240,000 votes out of 41 million cast in an
election he said was stolen on behalf of Calderon by Fox and his allies.
His legal challenges have been rebuffed by Mexico's electoral tribunal,
which is expected to name Calderon president by its constitutional
deadline Wednesday. Fox's term ends Dec. 1.

Lopez Obrador's postelection campaign seeks to discredit the federal
government and any Mexican politician or institution that fails to
support his claim to the presidency. He's called for a national
convention Sept. 16, Mexico's Independence Day, to discuss creating a
parallel government. 

"Granted, he exposed Mexico's Achilles' heel - that the have-nots
haven't benefited to the extent that others have. But I just don't know
whether it justifies unraveling Mexico's political system as a result,"
Peschard-Sverdrup said.

Meanwhile, Lopez Obrador's demonstrations have remained largely
unchallenged, protected by the PRD's control over Mexico City, where the
protests are centered.

With public opinion divided over the election results, mounting anger at
demonstrators and a fear of violent clashes, Fox faces tremendous
pressure to reach some accord with Lopez Obrador, an unlikely prospect
at the moment, or deal more forcefully with protesters.

"The Fox administration has shown political restraint, but public
opinion may force him to finally act," Peschard-Sverdrup said. "Not to
mention that he could more easily take the political hit than an
incoming Felipe Calderon."

Lopez Obrador retains a popular advantage among the working class here,
seen as someone able to outsmart Fox, the police and the government. 

Mexican political analyst Leo Zuckerman said, "The real winner was
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who continues to look like a great
political leader versus a president who, although still popular, has a
fading image." 


  _____  

sam.enriquez@xxxxxxxxxxx

Cecilia Sanchez in The Times' Mexico City Bureau contributed to this
report.



 
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