[Marxism] New leadership may spark change in Cuba

["Walter Lippmann" <walterlx@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The utter tranquility which prevails in Cuba is driving some media
people and many in the so-called "exile" world bonkers. They don't
seem to know what to make of the fact that, looking at this process
from THEIR point of view, the worst possible thing has happened: a
completely peaceful transition has taken place, but from the Castro 
regime to the Castro regime. Naturally everyone is trying to read in
their own meaning, and to spin the process in their own manner and
according to their own lights. The fact remains that Cuba is now as
it has been for 47 years, ready, wiling and able to have normalized
relations with Washington, on the bases of respect by Washington for
Cuban sovereignty. That is now, and has always been, the bottom line.

If some in the United States now want to say that Cuba has changed,
I doubt anyone in Cuba will criticize them for it, so long as Cuban
sovereignty is respected. What could be more normal, for one example,
than one government asking another government to permit the first one
to fly over the second one's territory during a weather emergency?

That's just what happened recently when the Cubans allowed the U.S.
airforce to fly over Cuban airspace. What was even more amazing, but
only because of its utter NORMALITY, was the fact that the government
of the United States - at least the National Weather Service - went 
out in PUBLIC and THANKED the Cuban government for its assistance.

Mark Falcoff, the rightist Cuba expert quoted at the end of this item
makes perhaps the most revealing comment of all. It's his way to say
that Washington's efforts to starve, strangle and isolate Cuba into
submission and revolt against the revolutionary government has, as
is now obvious, completely FAILED. 


Walter Lippmann, CubaNews
http://www.walterlippmann.com
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CubaNews 
===================================================================

New leadership may spark change in Cuba

By VANESSA ARRINGTON, 
Associated Press Writer
Fri Sep 1, 9:54 PM ET

<http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060902/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/cuba_without_fidel_3>

On the surface, life in Cuba remains utterly normal a month after
Fidel Castro ceded power for the first time in 47 years.

But behind the scenes, an emerging collective leadership is
increasing the possibilities for change on the communist-ruled
island, and bringing a fresh look at U.S. policies aimed at
undermining the Cuban system.

Raul Castro is beginning to show his leadership as acting president
while his brother rests from intestinal surgery, and Carlos Lage,
another member of the collective, is being featured more prominently
in state media. Both have been more inclined than Fidel to open up
Cuba's communist economy.

And in a statement much analyzed by Cuba watchers, Raul Castro said
he supports normalizing relations with the United States - but only
if the Americans stop trying to determine how Cuba is governed.

The U.S. government's latest "transition" plan assumes "a more active
civil society" and a "growing sense of frustration among ordinary
Cubans" on the island will help hasten change, especially after Fidel
Castro, now 80, is gone.

But while pressure to alleviate daily economic struggles is
increasing - a reality Raul Castro will have to face - calm has
reigned under the 75-year-old defense minister's leadership. And with
the Cuban government running smoothly, attention is shifting to
whether the U.S. might change its long-standing focus on pushing out
the Castro government.

"If Raul Castro decides to make some serious changes in Cuba, that
would immediately knock the props from under the existing policy of
the United States," said Mark Falcoff, resident scholar emeritus at
the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative Washington think
tank.

Some Cuban dissidents, from the moderate Oscar Espinosa Chepe to the
more strident Martha Beatriz Roque, say Raul may listen to younger
government leaders and allow more private enterprise. Even modest
economic openings could lead to increased political freedoms, they
say.

While Raul strongly embraces the primacy of the communist party, he
has shown a willingness to experiment with a freer economy.

Raul expressed interest in China's model of capitalist reform with
one-party political control during a November 1997 visit. And it was
Raul who announced in 1994 that farmers markets were being set up to
allow the island's growers to sell crops for whatever price they
could get, introducing more Cubans to private enterprise.

Lage, in turn, was involved in other reforms that helped Cuba survive
economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union cut off
substantial subsidies. The changes allowed trade in U.S. dollars and
foreign investment, spun off state farms into cooperatives and
legalized hundreds of small private businesses.

Fidel Castro later retreated from many of those popular reforms,
limiting self-employment licenses, imposing restrictions on farmers
markets and removing the U.S. dollar from circulation. But despite
unhappiness among many Cubans about the pullback, dramatic and rapid
change here seems unlikely.

Current U.S. law forbids easing a decades-old embargo on trade and
travel to Cuba while either Fidel or Raul is in power. Without
congressional approval, these restrictions cannot be lifted unless
Cuba embraces multiparty elections and a market economy.

But Cuba now gets enough support from Venezuela and China to keep its
economy going, said Wayne Smith, the top U.S. diplomat in Havana from
1979 to 1982. "I don't think they're going to make sweeping changes
just to please the United States."

And with Cubans failing to rise up as Fidel Castro is sidelined, U.S.
officials have toned down their rhetoric.

"The idea that a little more of a shove and the Cuban regime was
gone" was wrong, Smith said. "Nothing that they were predicting has
happened, so they look quite foolish."

Fidel Castro was shown on state television Friday during a visit by
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, looking notably better than he did
when he last seen almost three weeks ago.

While few expect Washington to embrace Cuba's new government,
observers say U.S. officials may eventually be more open to talks
with Raul Castro than his brother.

One sign of that came last week, when the Bush administration revived
a 4-year-old proposal to lift its embargo if Cuba adopts democratic
processes - an offer Cuba rejected when Bush first made it in May
2002.

Under the proposal, the administration would consult with Congress on
ending the embargo if Cuba releases political prisoners, protects
human rights, legalizes political parties and creates "a pathway" to
free elections, Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannon said.

The recent statements from both Shannon and Raul Castro - hinting at
an opening while reiterating hard-line positions - also reflect that
both governments hope to avoid violence as Cuba prepares for life
after Fidel.

For Falcoff, who wrote the book "Cuba, The Morning After: Confronting
Castro's Legacy," the problem for U.S. policy lies in a deep
contradiction.

"On one hand, we say we want regime change, that we want Cuba to wake
up one morning and be like (democratic, capitalist) Costa Rica,"
Falcoff said. "But even more than that, we want Cuba to not riot, to
not have violence."


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