[Marxism] Miami Herald shocker: "Cuban transition makes no waves"!!!

["Walter Lippmann" <walterlx@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Confusing what you want to happen, or how you want to see things
for what they are is an all-too-common human characteristic. We're
all subject to this problem. In Miami, recently, some people really
thought that with Fidel out on sick leave and having formally given
his titles, even with the modifier "provisionally" to his brother,
the Cuban government and system would collapse. Well, it's been a
full month and absolutely NOTHING has changed in Cuba. Those exile
nuts in Miami were shown to be cruel and demented, publicly trying
to celebrate the human illness of the man they love to hate. When
the MIAMI HERALD finds itself quoting Francisco Aruca, one of the
paper's foremost political critics, you know that something very
important has happened: NOTHING. And, for a publication like the
MIAMI HERALD, that is obviously a startling development. Even the
restrained tone in which they describe this reality reflects that.


Walter Lippmann, CubaNews
http://www.walterlippmann.com
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CubaNews 
==================================================================

MIAMI HERALD
Posted on Thu, Aug. 31, 2006    

<http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/special_packages/5min/15402204.ht
m>

CUBA
Cuban transition makes no waves
A month after Fidel Castro stepped aside, 
nothing in Cuba seems to have changed.
BY NANCY SAN MARTIN
nsanmartin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

One month to the day after Fidel Castro ceded power to his younger
brother, Raúl, Cuba appears to be much like a plane on autopilot with
no final destination.

There has been no visible indication of political change on the
communist-ruled island, no visible increase in rule by Raúl, no
apparent change in the machinery of government. There have been no
stepped-up challenges by dissidents or increases in the number of
rafters fleeing by sea.

Neither has there been any explanation for what caused the man who
ruled Cuba for 47 years to undergo intestinal surgery on July 31 and
surrender his monopoly on power for the first time.

Taken together, these elements have left some Cuba watchers wondering
about what is really going on in the island of 11 million people just
90 miles off Key West.

When Fidel Castro handed over the reins to Raúl, he stage-managed a
scene that caught most Cuba experts off guard: a succession from
Fidel to Raúl without Fidel's death.

Even now, some believe, the 80-year-old Fidel may well be continuing
to plot the island's future course, leaving little leeway for his
75-year-old brother.

''I don't think Raúl would want to make a lot of change with Fidel
still in the picture,'' said Mark Falcoff, author of Cuba, The
Morning After. ``I think he's scared to death of his brother.''

''He has to be careful on how far he can push, not only because of
Fidel, but because of the hard-line Fidelistas, who would accuse him
of betrayal,'' said Edward Gonzalez, a Cuba expert at the
California-based RAND Corporation.

QUIET COUNTDOWN

Illustrating the apparent calm, Miami radio commentator Francisco
Aruca, a steadfast critic of U.S. sanctions on Cuba, had been
starting his daily program with the words ``Today marks XX days, and
nothing has happened.''

''Contrary to what people want to acknowledge, the great majority of
people [in Cuba] don't want the shaking up of society,'' said Aruca,
a frequent traveler to the island. ``I do believe that they want
changes, but no upheaval or violence.''

Even dissidents on the island have been reluctant to push too hard
for change, perhaps because some want to retain a measure of
stability, perhaps because some fear a government crackdown.

Wayne Smith, a former head of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Havana
and frequent critic of U.S. policy on Cuba, said that dissidents have
acted responsibly and that the population as a whole has accepted the
transfer of power ``with great calm and maturity.''

''It had always been planned that Raúl Castro would step in, and he
did,'' Smith said in a telephone interview from Washington. ``Only
people in Miami were expecting some kind of collapse.''

Castro shocked the world on a Monday night a month ago when his
secretary, Carlos Valenciaga, read a letter on Cuban television,
announcing the power shift because of a ''sharp intestinal crisis
with sustained bleeding'' that required ``complicated surgery.''

The public has since seen Castro only twice, first in a series of
Cuban newspaper photos showing him sitting up, then in a video taken
during a bedside visit by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and
broadcast on Castro's 80th birthday, Aug. 13.

Raúl, too, has kept a low profile, showing up only to meet Chávez at
the airport, in the visit video and later in a photo that accompanied
a long interview he granted to the daily newspaper Granma.

Raúl said in the interview that he was open to dialogue with the
United States, and Washington later made somewhat similar comments.
Both comments included harsh caveats that would make it difficult to
open talks, but they nevertheless raised eyebrows among Cuba
watchers.

In the meantime, the Bush administration has shown no appetite for
any aggressive effort to undermine the succession to Raúl and promote
a transition to democracy.

AWAITING DIALOGUE?

''The U.S. wants to avoid any kind of crisis or instability in
Cuba,'' said Antonio Jorge, a professor of economics and
international relations at Florida International University. ``So, I
expect Washington [will] wait for the opportunity to establish some
kind of . . . dialogue.''

Roger Noriega, a former assistant secretary of state for the Western
Hemisphere, said the administration's lack of more muscular
insistence for democratic reforms is more likely ``just a question of
quiet diplomacy.''

''The United States does not want to be perceived as trying to manage
what is happening in Cuba,'' he said.

But Noriega expressed concern about the ''lack of any obvious
mobilization'' by Cuba's small and traditionally tightly monitored
dissident movement.

''That's what's going to propel change -- when Cubans themselves take
the initiative and claim their rights,'' Noriega said. ``They need to
step up.''

In a sign that the elder Castro remains in charge, Raúl reportedly
has continued to work in his office in the Ministry of Defense
instead of moving into Fidel's presidential offices.

But Raúl received a Syrian delegation earlier this week in
preparation for a summit of Nonaligned Movement nations that Havana
is scheduled to host next month -- a move seen as a hint that Fidel
will not be well enough to attend.

© 2006 MiamiHerald.com and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.


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