[Marxism] Wall Street Journal's take on "Life After Castro"

["Walter Lippmann" <walterlx@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

These are the cold-blooded calculations of the capitalist system
and its principal newspaper. Here you see that the Revolution has
not fallen, and that all that's likely to fall in the days ahead
are the hopes of the Miami Militants and the rightists who support
them and make money in their evil industry, that Cuba is somehow
going to collapse with Fidel Castro not at the top of the island's
leadership. If anything is obvious from this, Cuba's system isn't
anywhere near any kind of collapse. It's calm and quiet here in
Havana today. Trust me, there isn't any anything stirring here.

See the various quotes and graphics here:
http://www.walterlippmann.com/docs873.html
==================================================================

August 5, 2006   
HOT TOPIC       

Life After Castro: 
U.S. Braces for a Dictator to Fall 
August 5, 2006; Page A9
WALL STREET JOURNAL

THE MAIN EVENT

Cuban leader Fidel Castro temporarily relinquished power to his
brother Raúl, causing Cuban exiles in Miami to dance in the streets
and the U.S. to ponder a post-communist era on the island.

* * *

Mr. Castro, the world's longest-serving leader, has been a thorn in
Washington's side for nearly half a century, defying a suffocating
economic embargo and acting as an outpost for Soviet meddling in the
region -- and even hosting nuclear missiles that nearly precipitated
a direct military clash between the superpowers.

But while exiles celebrate, U.S. policy makers have to ponder a more
complicated question: Is the U.S. prepared for the fallout from
another collapsed regime -- this one just 90 miles from its shores?

The 79-year-old Cuban leader underwent surgery Monday for intestinal
bleeding. But his government's secretiveness has kept the world
wondering about his health.

Here's a look at what a post-Castro era could mean:

What does the U.S. want? With or without Mr. Castro, the U.S. is
pushing for democratic transformation on the Caribbean island. Last
month the Bush administration announced it would spend $80 million
over two years to hasten the demise of the Cuban regime, in part by
giving money to dissident groups and boosting pro-democracy radio
broadcasts. Still, it won't be easy to sow democracy there after
decades of iron-fisted rule.

Is immediate change likely in Cuba? Probably not. For years, Mr.
Castro has been preparing for Cuba's life after his death. Raúl,
together with a core group of Old Guard Cubans, is a firm believer in
the regime's revolutionary ideals. Also, the military is deeply
vested in the economy and therefore has a stake in maintaining the
status quo. Still, change may come slowly. Cubans dissatisfied with
meager food rations and political oppression could demand freedom.
Also, some analysts say the younger Castro -- he is 75 -- may in time
be inclined to introduce Chinese-style reforms: liberalizing the
economy while retaining a tight grip on political activity. In the
early 1990s, Fidel Castro allowed U.S. dollars to be used as a form
of currency, and permitted private-home owners to rent rooms to
tourists, with Raúl embracing the changes.

Would a freer Cuba create business opportunities for the U.S.?
Possibly. Given Cuba's proximity to the U.S., businesses from tourism
to energy are eyeing the island. Sugar production, which was once
vibrant in Cuba, has practically collapsed. In the event of economic
liberalization, Cuban-American sugar producers might be among the
first to return. Also more Americans might have access to Cuban
cigars, although Norman Sharp of the Cigar Association of America
says the embargo hasn't been effective in keeping cigars out of the
U.S. Cuba also recently discovered as much as 9.3 million barrels of
oil off its coast, and some experts believe U.S. companies could
enhance energy security by expanding refining capacity to Cuba.

Still, there is a stumbling block. The trade embargo -- tightened by
the 1996 Helms-Burton Act -- prevents U.S. citizens from doing
business in Cuba until both Fidel and Raúl are out of power,
democracy takes hold and a free market is in place.

Could Castro's death cause an immigration crisis? If a transition
broke down into social unrest or civil war, there could be a mass
exodus -- a potential nightmare for the U.S. In 1980, Mr. Castro sent
125,000 undocumented migrants to south Florida. The U.S. Navy helped
manage the so-called Mariel Boatlift with the largest peacetime naval
operation ever undertaken up to that time.

Another concern is that the exile community could sail fleets to
Cuba, either to save relatives or to storm the island to influence
political change. The U.S. -- concerned this could cause instability
in the region -- may be forced to set up a "reverse blockade." But
with the lingering stain of the botched Bay of Pigs invasion and U.S.
troops engaged in the Middle East, the U.S. likely won't be quick to
deploy military force.

--Lauren Etter

* * *

POINTS OF VIEW

"I do not have the slightest doubt that our people and our revolution
will fight to the last drop of blood ... Imperialism will never be
able to crush Cuba. The Battle of Ideas will continue. Long live the
fatherland!"
--Fidel Castro in a letter dated Aug. 1 to the Cuban people

"If Fidel Castro were to move on because of natural causes, we've got
a plan in place to help the people of Cuba understand there's a
better way than the system in which they've been living under."
--President George W. Bush

"Cuba is entering a new phase that may prove decisive. Each day,
there is more certainty in all, whatever may be one's political
position, that democratic change is necessary and inevitable."
--Oswaldo Paya, a leading Cuban dissident

"I wonder if Washington is prepared to deal with such an
unpredictable, uncertain and potentially messy situation just 90
miles from Miami. For the Bush administration, so distracted and
consumed by other hot spots, the timing of this unsettled situation
is problematic."
--Michael Shifter, analyst at Washington think tank Inter-American
Dialogue

* * *

A declassified 1967 Central Intelligence Agency report shows the U.S.
considered spraying hallucinogenic aerosol at a radio station where
Mr. Castro was broadcasting a speech, contaminating a box of his
cigars with chemicals and sprinkling thallium salts in his shoes to
cause his beard to fall out.

About 36% of seats in Cuban parliament are held by women. That is a
higher percentage of women than is found in any parliament other than
those in Rwanda, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark.

More Cubans are caught each year trying to enter the U.S. by boat.
Last year the U.S. Coast Guard interdicted 2,417 Cubans at sea. In
2000, that number was 637.

Cuba has 75 fixed-line and mobile-phone subscriptions and 13 Internet
users per 1,000 people, according to the World Bank. The U.S. has
1,222 fixed-line and mobile-phone subscriptions and 630 Internet
users per 1,000 people.

Last year, approximately 6,360 Cuban refugees arrived in the U.S.
About 12% of all refugees in the U.S. came from Cuba, making it the
third-largest source of refugees behind Somalia, at 19%; Laos, 16%.

Castro holds the Guinness world record for giving the longest United
Nations speech: It was four hours and 29 minutes on Sept. 26, 1960.
It isn't uncommon for him to give a single speech that lasts for
eight hours. * * *



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