[Marxism] NYTimes report sees Hezbollah, Nasrallah as winner so far -- US as big loser

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

NY Times July 30, 2006 Israel Is Powerful, Yes. But Not So Invincible.
By JOHN KIFNER NO exit? 
 
As the bloodbath in Lebanon spilled past its second week - with at least
400 Lebanese dead and many more presumed buried in rubble; some 800,000
refugees, nearly a quarter of the population, on the run; and the
fragile nation's infrastructure shattered - there was no easy way out
for either Israel or Hezbollah, the combatants locked in what each saw
as a deadly existential struggle. 
 
The very clear winner, for the moment at least, was Hezbollah and its
leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah. (Unless, of course, Israel succeeds in
its efforts to assassinate him.) As the only Arab leader seen to have
defeated the Israelis - on the basis of their withdrawal in 2000 from an
18-year occupation - he already enjoyed wide respect. Now, with
Hezbollah standing firm and inflicting casualties, he has become a folk
hero across the Muslim world, apparently uniting Sunnis and Shiites. 
 
The standoff stunned Israel, whose offensive came in response to a
Hezbollah cross-border raid that resulted in the death of eight Israeli
soldiers and the capture of two others. Central to the embattled
nation's sense of survivability is the idea of its invincibility. Its
intelligence knows everything, the mythology goes, and no army dare
stand against it. In truth, Israel has, in part, been lucky in its
enemies, mostly Arab regimes with armies suitable mainly for keeping
their own populace in check. 
 
What was clearly conceived two weeks ago as a quick battle using air
power and strikes on specific targets with commando raids to degrade
Hezbollah's resources, particularly its stores of thousands of rockets,
has turned into a crisis. "Israel is far from a decisive victory and its
main objectives have not been achieved," wrote the country's most
respected military analyst, Zeev Schiff, in the daily Haaretz. 
 
Hezbollah, Sheik Nasrallah has said, "needs only to survive to win."
That seemed increasingly likely by week's end. Deeply entwined among the
Shiite community that makes up perhaps 40 percent of Lebanon's
population, it would be impossible to eliminate. But there is more.
Although the Israelis announced within days that they had destroyed 50
percent of Hezbollah's munitions, the guerrillas have continued to rain
more than a hundred rockets a day on Israel. And on Wednesday, in Bint
Jbail, a town the Israelis said they controlled, a well-laid Hezbollah
ambush pinned down infantrymen from the elite Golani Brigade for hours.
At times the firing was so heavy the brigade's soldiers could not return
it; eight Israelis were killed. The highly advanced Merkava tanks were
reduced to ambulances and several were destroyed. 
 
The idea that a supposedly ragtag group of guerrillas could trap the
Golani Brigade was a visceral threat to the future. Still, while there
has been criticism of the conduct of the war in Israel, with the rockets
hitting northern Israel and Hezbollah still entrenched, there is wide
popular support for continued combat. 
 
Yoel Marcus, a columnist for Haaretz who had earlier acidly asked if
this was the same army that had defeated all of the Arab forces in just
six days, ended the week writing: "It is unthinkable to walk away from
the battlefield with the depressing sense that out of all the wars
Israel has ever fought, only Hezbollah, a mere band of terrorists, was
able to bombard the Israeli home front with thousands of missiles and
get off scot free. 
 
"Before any international agreement, Israel must sound the last chord,
launching a massive air and ground offensive that will end this
mortifying war, not with a whimper but a thunderous roar." 
 
It is the United States that may well come out the worst in this
impasse, particularly in terms of its influence in the Arab and Muslim
world. Already widely seen throughout much of that world as the lapdog
of Israel, it is now viewed as publicly sanctioning the continued
pounding of Lebanon, blocking efforts for a cease-fire and even rushing
the Israelis more laser-guided bombs. 
 
"I think this is a loser," said Augustus Richard Norton, an expert on
the Shia of Lebanon who teaches at Boston University. "Time is working
against us, not with us. The options stink." 
 
Vali R. Nasr, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, said that
"the reason it's an impasse is that there is a lot riding on it for the
U.S. and Israel." He added: "It potentially puts into question the
entire rationale of whether overwhelming military force can shape the
region. The bar for victory for the U.S. and Israel is growing every day
and for Hezbollah it is lowering every day." 
 
Israel has been down this road in Lebanon before. In both 1978 and 1982
it invaded to drive out Palestinian guerrillas and employed a heavy
bombing campaign that drove many Shiites from the south to Beirut's
southern slums. Its 18-year occupation of the south brought Hezbollah
into existence. 
 
"Hezbollah had 20 years to hone their skills and hatred against Israel,"
said Mr. Norton, a former Army officer who served with the United
Nations in southern Lebanon and taught at West Point. "That hatred was
created by Israel; it wasn't there at the beginning." 
 
Israel's battle plan rested on air power, hoping that heavy bombing
would demoralize the population and turn it against Hezbollah, although
many military experts say that rarely works. Officials last week seemed
uncertain how to proceed: they said they would keep bombing rather than
launch any big land attacks, but still called up as many as 30,000
reserves. 
 
As international concern grew over the destruction, there was a flurry
of diplomatic maneuvers aimed at creating a peacekeeping force. But
while there was widespread support in principle, no nation seemed eager
to send its own troops, particularly if the mandate was to disarm
Hezbollah, in effect, to become another combatant. 
 
On Friday, as crowds spilled out of a Sunni mosque in Cairo, capital of
one of America's key allies, they waved posters with the bearded,
black-turbaned portrait of Sheik Nasrallah. 
 
"Oh, Sunni! Oh, Shiite! Let's fight the Jews," the crowds chanted. "The
Jews and the Americans are killing our brothers in Lebanon."
 
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